WTPZ43 KNHC 250235

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025

800 PM PDT Fri Oct 24 2025

 

The depression has changed little over the past several hours. 

Geostationary satellite imagery has shown deep convection 

periodically forming near the center, with a broad, loose band 

wrapping around the northern side of the circulation.  Subjective 

Dvorak estimates remain at T2.0 and the initial intensity is held at 

30 kt for this advisory.



During the next couple of days, environmental and oceanic conditions 

are expected to be conducive for gradual strengthening.  The sea 

surface temperatures should be between 27-26 deg C, with 

light-to-moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level 

humdities.  Around 48 to 60 h, global models suggest the wind shear 

should gradually increase, inducing a gradual weakening trend.  By 

the end of the forecast period, cooling ocean waters and 

increasingly dry air are expected reduce and dissipate the deep, 

organized convection.  GFS and ECMWF are suggesting this may occur 

sooner, and the official forecast now shows the depression becoming 

a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  

 

The estimated motion of the depression is 270 degrees at 7 kt.  A 

subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should be the main 

steering feature for the next 5 days, which will initially continue 

its westward heading with a decreasing forward speed.  By the end of 

the weekend, an amplifying mid- to upper-level mid-latitude trough 

should slightly weaken the ridge, causing the system to bend 

west-northwestward.  As the vortex becomes more shallow by the end 

of the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone should turn back 

westward in the low-level flow.  The latest official forecast has 

been nudged to the north, and lies between the HCCA and the previous 

prediction.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  25/0300Z 13.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  25/1200Z 13.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  26/0000Z 13.4N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  26/1200Z 13.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

 60H  27/1200Z 14.4N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  28/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  30/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 

$$

Forecaster Bucci