WTPN21 PHNC 240630

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 111.5W TO 13.9N 117.2W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 12.9N 112.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N

112.0W, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED,

CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG

THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 10-15 KTS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF

27-28 C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SYSTEM HAVING A GENERAL WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 24 HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY CONTINUING TO

CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED

AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

250630Z.//

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