WTPN21 PGTW 031400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.1N 135.0E TO 7.6N 128.5E

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 9.1N 135.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

9.0N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY

111 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY

(EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH

FLARING, FRAGMENTED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION BUT

FOCUSED IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT. A PARTIAL 031203Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS

THE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH LIGHT WINDS EXTENDING ALL

ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK, AND STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (25KTS TO 35KTS)

ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. THE LLCC IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NORTHERN

END OF A THE HIGHLY ELONGATED, BEAN-SHAPED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO

30 C), AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE

QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF 94W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALSO AGREE IN A

GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS

IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY

041400Z.//

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