WTNT23 KNHC 250842

TCMAT3

 

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025

0900 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025

 

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  75.0W AT 25/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

 

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   3 KT

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......100NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.

4 M SEAS....120NE 120SE  30SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

 

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  75.0W AT 25/0900Z

AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  74.9W

 

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N  75.3W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT...130NE 110SE  50SW  80NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.7N  75.9W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  30NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.8N  76.5W

MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N  77.1W

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...150NE 130SE  60SW 100NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.2N  77.4W

MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 100NW.

 

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N  77.2W...S COAST OF JAMAICA

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...140NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.

 

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

 

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.4N  75.3W...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.

34 KT...140NE 170SE 100SW  90NW.

 

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.8N  71.6W...OVER WATER

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 180SE 140SW  90NW.

 

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  75.0W

 

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1200Z

 

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

 

$$

FORECASTER BERG