FXZS60 NSTU 040044

AFDPPG



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS

144 PM SST Sun May 3 2026



.Discussion...

An active trough in the region holds unstable and wet conditions 

for the territory. Latest satellite and upper air data depicts 

thunderstorms nearby, as well as an increased risk for flash 

flooding (balloon profile appears to be more moist compared to the

sounding from last night). Meanwhile, a ridge is evident just 

north of the trough. ECMWF and GFS models diverge on the strength 

of the ridge, with ECMWF showing a weaker feature. A weaker ridge

means a higher risk for flash flooding as the trough remains

anchored over the Samoa Island chain, whereas a stronger one 

pushes the trough further south. However, as satellite data 

corresponds better with ECMWF, we will continue the Flash Flood 

Watch through Monday morning. 



By Tuesday, the trough will shift southward, leaving the territory

in a CUL or area with no significant weather. Expect light winds

and passing showers through Friday, before an east breeze of 10 to

15 mph dominates through the weekend.



&&



.Marine...

Latest wave heights observed at the PacIOOS buoys are in the range

of 5 to 7 feet. These heights will gradually build tonight 

through Tuesday as a south swell passes through the area.

Additionally, nearby thunderstorms could elevate seas at times.

Hence, a small craft advisory is in effect. Once these swells 

subside by midweek, expect fairly calm seas through the end of the

week. 



&&



.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flash Flood Watch

Small Craft Advisory



&&



$$



TM