FXZS60 NSTU 030100 RRA

AFDPPG



Area Forecast Discussion...DELAYED

National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS

200 PM SST Mon Feb 2 2026



.DISCUSSION...

Periodic heavy downpours with gusty north-northwest winds 

experienced earlier in the day into this afternoon is the result 

of remnants of a trough as it continues to migrate further south. 

The close proximity of the trough has kept these showers over the

area. This is supported by the latest upper air observations

(RAOB) from this afternoon (03/00Z) with strong north winds and

increased precipitable water values compared to the last RAOB

data 12 hours ago. However, model projections show a ridge

building from the north-northeast of the area, aiding in pushing

the trough further south. Also helping in moving the trough away

from the area is a low pressure system embedded within the 

trough, pulling the trough as it tracks southward in the coming

days. With these two features battling over the area, local

weather patterns consists of scattered to numerous showers with

brief heavy downpours and moderate to fresh north-northwest 

winds, with higher gusts from time to time for tonight. 



By Tuesday, showers and winds will decrease and fair weather

conditions will start to build over the area. As north winds turn

northwest on Tuesday night and Wednesday, becoming east for the

rest of the forecast period, embedded showers within the wind flow 

will pass over the area from time to time. Expect scattered

showers and gentle to moderate winds to prevail for the rest of

the week. 



&&



.Marine...

Recent observations from the PacIOOS buoy show elevated seas with

long periods peaking at 16 seconds which prompted the issuance of

an advisory for high surfs, earlier in the day. The long periods 

are indicative of a distant swell moving into the American Samoa 

coastal waters. Model solutions show that this north to northwest 

swell will linger through at least Tuesday. However, model 

solutions show a downward trend for the rest of the forecast 

period, starting tonight. As seas remain below advisory

thresholds, waves of long periods from the north-northwest will

move through the islands periodically, holding the threat of 

strong rip currents and enhanced surfs closer to shores. The 

fresh north winds will gradually decrease throughout the week. 

Therefore, no other significant swell is expected for this 

forecast period. However, the threat of high surfs and small

crafts will remain in effect. These conditions will be 

monitored continuously as more data becomes available.



&&



.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Surf Advisory

Small Craft Advisory



&&



$$



JTAllen