FXZS60 NSTU 020057 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 157 PM SST Sun Feb 1 2026 .Discussion... Latest visible satellite imagery indicates that the active trough responsible for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the territory over the past few days has shifted slightly southward. The main islands of American Samoa sit at the northern edge of this trough keeping cloudy conditions across the islands. Latest model guidance shows a ridge building to the northeast of the Manu'a Islands tonight. This will hold the trough in place, maintaining a chance of showers and northerly winds through early Tuesday. Also, models show an intensifying low-level pressure developing within the southern end of the aforementioned trough tonight. This intensifying low will help drag the trough southward as it spins toward the equator through the week. With the trough moving further south and away from the territory, it allows for the aforementioned ridge to move across the islands by midweek, resulting in isolated to scattered showers accompanied by light and variable winds. This relatively drier pattern (compared to recent days) will be short-lived, however. As the ridge weakens later in the week, weak easterly flow with embedded showers is expected to return across the islands toward the weekend. && .Marine... Current PacIOOS observations from the Aunu'u and King-Poloa buoys confirm northerly swells impacting the territory. These swell heights will maintain the Small Craft Advisory, particularly across northern waters, through Monday. The aforementioned trough will maintain the possibility of thunderstorms across southern waters of the territory through Tuesday. The latest Wave Watch III (WWIII) swell forecast indicates that ocean conditions will remain below advisory thresholds for the remainder of the forecast period thereafter. Seas and winds are higher near thunderstorms. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Monday && $$