FXXX12 KWNP 211231

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2026 Sep 21 1230 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity reached low levels with three C-class flares: a C1.1

flare at 20/0518 UTC from Region 4535 (N12E61, Cao/beta), and a C1.2/Sf

at 21/0629 UTC and a C3.7/1f flare at 20/2234 UTC, both from Region 4534

(N10W21, Dri/beta). Regions 4534 and newly numbered Region 4536 (N03E02,

Bxi/beta) exhibited rapid flux emergence during the reporting period, 

while the remaining regions were relatively stable. No Earth-directed

CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels on 21-23 Sep, with a

slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal

to moderate levels on 21-23 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is

expected to continue at background levels through 23 Sep.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

The solar wind environment remained undisturbed over the past 24 hours.

Total magnetic field strength averaged around 5 nT, and the north-south

(Bz) component varied between +/- 2 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually

decreased from a peak of around 400 km/s to 330 km/s by the end of the

reporting period. The phi angle was predominately negative.



.Forecast...

Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 21-23 Sep.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the reporting period.



.Forecast...

Mostly quiet geomagnetic field conditions are expected to prevail over

21-23 Sep.