FXUS66 KSTO 022216

AFDSTO



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Sacramento CA

216 PM PST Mon Feb 2 2026



For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the

next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.





.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Dry weather with patchy morning fog in the Valley through the 

   week.

 

 - Pattern change late weekend and into early next week, with

   potential for precipitation.  



&&



.DISCUSSION...



...Today through Friday... 



Skies are partly to mostly sunny across the area, with a few hazy

spots. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s in the northern

Sacramento Valley and 60s elsewhere in the Valley. Areas in the 

mountains are in the 40s to 50s. Ridge of high pressure will 

remain in place through the week, with light and variable winds 

and morning fog. HREF continues to show fog each morning through

Friday for areas in the southern Sacramento Valley towards the 

northern San Joaquin Valley. Around the Sacramento area fog will 

be patchy, with visibility reductions to a half mile, while areas 

in the northern San Joaquin Valley sees reductions to a quarter 

mile or less. This will be a rinse and repeat situation through 

Friday. Thus, we have issued another Dense Fog Advisory from 6z 

through 18z for the northern San Joaquin Valley for tonight into 

tomorrow morning. 



Besides the fog, conditions will remain dry with low RH values in

the teens to 20s for the mountains each afternoon through Friday.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal this week, with a

slight cooling trend over the weekend. 



...Saturday and onward... 



Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures on Saturday, with a 

change in the ridging over the southwestern United States come 

Sunday. Ensembles have started to pick up on a pattern change 

taking shape end of the weekend and into early next week that 

would break down the ridge and introduce precipitation chances. At

this time, ECMWF and GFS ensembles have hinted at the possibility

of widespread precipitation for the region, with a continued 

active pattern through all of next week. Probabilities at this 

time for over a quarter of an inch of precipitation are 30-40

percent for the Valley, and over 60 percent for the foothills, 

mountains, and Shasta county area. Confidence is low at this time 

on rain/snow amounts, timing, and breakdown of the ridge. 



&&



.AVIATION...



VFR conditions expected through the evening, with conditions

turning IFR to MVFR as visibilities drop. Patchy dense fog around

05-06z for SAC, SMF, MHR, and MCC through 15-16z. Visibility

reductions down a half mile at times for those locations. Areas in

the northern San Joaquin area will see more widespread dense fog,

with visibilities of a quarter mile or less. RDD and RBL will

remain VFR through the TAF period. 



&&



.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Tuesday 

for Northern San Joaquin Valley.



&&



$$