FXUS66 KOTX 052151 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 251 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minor to locally moderate HeatRisk through Thursday. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Dangerously cold water temperatures pose a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia for anyone who unexpectedly falls in. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. && .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of May. Conditions will be dry outside small chances for mountain showers in the North Idaho Panhandle each afternoon Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: A cold front that made its way through the forecast area has resulted in breezy winds and a ~5 degree cooldown from yesterday through today. High temperatures today will be mostly in the 70s apart from some 80 degree temperatures in the deeper Basin, Okanogan Valley, and Wenatchee areas. A shortwave embedded within the flow will flatten the ridge on Wednesday, resulting in gusty winds and a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the far NE Washington and Idaho Panhandle. Main impacts will be gusty outflow winds and infrequent lightning strikes. Otherwise, the main impact will be winds contributing to elevated fire weather concerns. Winds will be strongest in the Cascade gaps on Wednesday night, with 25-30 mph expected and isolated gusts near 35-40 mph. Highest probabilities for wind gusts 30 mph or higher are west of Spokane. Temperatures are expected to stay in the mid to high 70s through Friday. Friday afternoon through Sunday: A more significant flattening of the broad upper level ridge will happen Friday afternoon as a surface low in western Canada ushers a cold front through the area. Probabilities for wind gusts greater than 30 mph Friday afternoon will be more widespread, with Spokane, Lewiston, and Pullman seeing increases in chances from Wednesday. Probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph drop to below 50% for many places in the forecast area except for Wenatchee and along the Cascade gaps. This cold front will also bring a very light chance of showers to mostly the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains due to orographic lift, with little to no accumulation expected. Main impacts include low minimum relative humidities combining with wind gusts to create elevated fire weather concerns. The ridge will re-strengthen Saturday and Sunday, bringing temperatures back into the high 70s and low 80s. Monday through Tuesday: Cluster guidance shows continued agreement in higher heights sticking around through at least the beginning of next week. The ridge looks to flatten again Monday through Tuesday, bringing a 3-5 degree drop in temperatures alongside breezy to gusty winds again. With another ridge moving in right behind it, moisture still looks to be scant and there is no precipitation expected. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected to continue. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear skies through the forecast period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 78 50 76 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 43 74 49 74 48 68 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Pullman 45 74 51 71 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 48 80 55 79 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 80 46 82 47 73 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 71 48 73 47 67 / 0 0 20 10 0 0 Kellogg 43 72 49 70 49 66 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Moses Lake 49 86 51 81 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 56 84 56 82 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 50 85 51 83 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$