FXUS66 KMTR 060451 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 951 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1218 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026 - Cool temperatures and cloudy with light rain ending this morning - Warmer and drier conditions return for the middle of the week through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Some isolated light rain has produced a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall for some elevated interior portions of the East Bay and South Bay, with drier air filling in behind the exiting system to the east early this afternoon. Expect a mix of sun and clouds through the remainder of the day and early evening. A robust marine layer will fill in across much of our area overnight, with rapid clearing by late morning into early afternoon Wednesday, as the ridging pattern takes hold. Temperatures Wednesday will increase around 5-10 degrees higher than todays values. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 504 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Confidence is high in ridging maintaining its hold on our synoptic pattern through the extended forecast and beyond. The warmup that sets in tomorrow is gradual through the remainder of the work week, with a more notable increase this upcoming weekend. As the ridge becomes more prominent by the end of the week we'll see the marine layer retreat back closer to the coast and compress, but not all the way offshore. Ensemble clusters are relatively tightly packed through mid-May wrt the ridging pattern and above normal temperatures. Our entire area is currently in Minor HeatRisk on Saturday with portions of our interior in Moderate HeatRisk Sunday and Monday. That trend should persist past the current forecast period as well. However, there are hints for some relief in the same ensemble clusters with troughing in the E Pacific at our latitude headed into the 3rd week of May. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 943 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 Elevated stratus remains locked in over the region, but there a "sloshy" nature to it as the edges ebb and flow. Not a standard stratus deck. As such, conf is lower. Through the first few hours of the TAF will keep it elevated, but then enough cooling overnight should lower CIGs to MVFR most areas. MVFR through mid- late Wed AM and then VFR (except HAF). Early return tomorrow evening for places like MRY. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with SFO in a bit of a clouds "hole" at the moment. Expect this to fill in with MVFR developing and then last through 18-20Z Wed. SFO Bridge Approach...Solid stratus deck 2500-4000ft. Monterey Bay Terminals...Elevated stratus lowering to MVFR. VFR re-developing by early Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 925 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026 High pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain gentle to moderate northerly breezes over the coastal waters through early Thursday. Fresh to strong northerly breezes develop Thursday afternoon through the weekend leading to locally hazardous conditions and building seas with steep fresh swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea