FXUS66 KMFR 210501

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

1001 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion updated. 





&&



.DISCUSSION...While much of southern Oregon and far northern 

California are enjoying mostly clear skies today, an extensive 

area of clouds lies just offshore and is streaming into the 

northern coast this afternoon. This is the leading edge of a weak 

cold front that will slowly push through the area tonight before 

dissipating to our south tomorrow. The good news is, this will be 

the last day of well above normal high temperatures as cooler air 

filters into the region over the next few days. The bad news is, 

there is very little precipitation associated with the front, and 

most areas will only receive a sprinkle or nothing it all. Even 

those areas that will get measurable rain, like the coast, the 

Umpqua Basin, and the Oregon Cascades, amounts will only be a few 

hundredths. Additionally, with snow levels above 7000 or even 8000

feet, very very little or no new snow will grace our mountains.



Temperatures will trend cooler, but still 5 to 10 degrees above 

seasonal normals, behind the front Saturday into Sunday. 

Near or below freezing temperatures are not uncommon for this 

time of year, but given the record-breaking warmth of the last 

several days, there is some concern regarding the return of 

frost/freeze conditions in the West Side valleys Saturday night 

into Sunday morning. Essentially, all the blooms we have seen 

recently, and any other early growth spurred on by the recent 

unseasonable warmth, are at risk of cold temperatures this 

weekend.



Temperatures will warm back up a bit Monday into Tuesday as the 

upper level ridge slightly nudges back into the area from the 

south. Breezy afternoon winds are also expected as the pressure

gradient tightens ahead of the next trough and associated surface

front that will pass through the region Tuesday night into

Wednesday morning. This front, while stronger than tonight's,

still won't produce much precipitation, although more widespread 

measurable rain, up to a tenth or even a quarter of an inch, is 

expected along and west of the Cascades. Meanwhile, high snow 

levels will prevent any winter impacts, and very little if any 

rain will make it to the East Side. This front will instead be 

more of a wind producer, with gusty winds possible along the 

coast, over terrain and in aligned valleys, and across the East 

Side. Wind speeds should stay just below Advisory level. 



Another round of cold temperatures and West Side frost/freeze is

likely Wednesday night, followed by more seasonable temperatures 

through the rest of the week. -BPN





&&



.AVIATION...21/06Z TAFs...As a weak front moves onshore MVFR/IFR 

ceilings will affect coastal through early Saturday morning. 

Conditions are expected to lift to VFR along the coast in the mid to 

late morning, 16-18z. MVFR ceilings (and local IFR) are expected to 

spread inland across the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, 

overnight into Saturday morning. Low clouds with MVFR are expected 

to reach Grants Pass and Medford as as well late tonight/early 

Saturday morning. Mountain obscurations are expected 06-18z from the 

Southern Oregon Cascades west. Low clouds will lift to VFR around 18-

20z. East of the Cascades and across Northern California expect VFR 

through the TAF period. 





&&



.MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Friday, March 20, 2026...Conditions 

will remain below advisory levels through this evening before small 

craft conditions begin in all areas tonight. A thermal trough 

develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds and steep to 

very steep seas to the  waters from Cape Blanco south. Brief gales 

are possible for areas from Gold Beach south in the late afternoons 

and early evenings on Saturday and Sunday.  A Hazardous Seas Warning 

has been issued for Saturday morning through early Monday for areas 

south of Cape Blanco, with small craft advisory conditions north of 

Cape Blanco. 



The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday 

afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are likely on Tuesday 

as a cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible 

if the front is strong enough, especially for areas from Cape Blanco 

northward on Tuesday. 





&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 5 

     AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. 



Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for 

     PZZ356-376. 



&&



$$