FXUS66 KMFR 202143 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 243 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .DISCUSSION...while much of southern Oregon and far northern California are enjoying mostly clear skies today, an extensive area of clouds lies just offshore and is streaming into the northern coast this afternoon. This is the leading edge of a weak cold front that will slowly push through the area tonight before dissipating to our south tomorrow. The good news is, this will be the last day of well above normal high temperatures as cooler air filters into the region over the next few days. The bad news is, there is very little precipitation associated with the front, and most areas will only receive a sprinkle or nothing it all. Even those areas that will get measurable rain, like the coast, the Umpqua Basin, and the Oregon Cascades, amounts will only be a few hundredths. Additionally, with snow levels above 7000 or even 8000 feet, very very little or no new snow will grace our mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler, but still 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal normals, behind the front Saturday into Sunday. Near or below freezing temperatures are not uncommon for this time of year, but given the record-breaking warmth of the last several days, there is some concern regarding the return of frost/freeze conditions in the West Side valleys Saturday night into Sunday morning. Essentially, all the blooms we have seen recently, and any other early growth spurred on by the recent unseasonable warmth, are at risk of cold temperatures this weekend. Temperatures will warm back up a bit Monday into Tuesday as the upper level ridge slightly nudges back into the area from the south. Breezy afternoon winds are also expected as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next trough and associated surface front that will pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This front, while stronger than tonight's, still won't produce much precipitation, although more widespread measurable rain, up to a tenth or even a quarter of an inch, is expected along and west of the Cascades. Meanwhile, high snow levels will prevent any winter impacts, and very little if any rain will make it to the East Side. This front will instead be more of a wind producer, with gusty winds possible along the coast, over terrain and in aligned valleys, and across the East Side. Wind speeds should stay just below Advisory level. Another round of cold temperatures and West Side frost/freeze is likely Wednesday night, followed by more seasonable temperatures through the rest of the week. -BPN && .AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are present inland, but MVFR to IFR ceilings are incoming for North Bend and Roseburg. North Bend began seeing the marine push around 17Z, and will continue seeing MVFR/IFR ceilings for most of the TAF period. Otherwise, KMFR and KLMT are expected to remain in VFR throughout the valid TAF cycle. -Hermansen && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Friday, March 20, 2026...Conditions will remain below advisory levels through this evening before small craft conditions begin in all areas. A thermal trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds and steep seas for southern waters. Gales are possible this weekend, and steep to very steep seas possible through early Monday. A Hazardous Seas Warning has been issued for Saturday morning through early Monday for areas south of Port Orford, with small craft inland and in northern waters. The outlook is for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength winds are likely around the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe as another cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough. -Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ376. && $$