FXUS66 KMFR 201741 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1041 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .SHORT TERM... Key Points: * Showers and thunderstorm chances will be found in Northern California and Lake County this afternoon. * Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the weekend. * Ridging takes control early next week, with 90s/low 100s forecast Monday and Tuesday. Radar shows a few showers moving east in Lake County, but they are overall light and have not produced lightning recently. Yesterday Klamath Falls received 0.02" of rainfall with Alturas in California receiving 0.03". Underneath high clouds, stratus is seen along the coast and in the Umpqua Basin on satellite. After starting out in the 40s/50s, temperatures will warm to the 60s for the coast, 80s for west side, and upper 70s/low 80s east. As the low moves eastward today, a shortwave will bring energy to the area. Forecast models are supporting a few cells in southern Lake County and portions of Siskiyou and Modoc counties in the afternoon. This will be less coverage than yesterday's activity, and there will be a drier trend after. Breezy northwest winds will also come this afternoon. A ridge will build over the Pacific Ocean, and will begin impacting our area tomorrow. A thermal trough will bring warmer temperatures near 80 to the Brookings area tomorrow afternoon. Inland, upper 80s and 90s are forecast west of the Cascades with low/mid-80s east. .LONG TERM...Monday onward...The flow pattern becomes more zonal for the start of next week as temperatures begin to warm. A thermal trough will likely develop west of the Cascades by Sunday night into Monday and persist into Tuesday. High temperatures in Medford will approach the 100 degree mark on both Monday and Tuesday. Heat risk becomes elevated/moderate during these days as low temperatures cool into the lower 60's. As a reminder, moderate heat risk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling. On a side note, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing values around 0.7-0.85 for maximum temperatures through Thursday west of the Cascades. These values suggest the ensembles are forecasting unusually warm temperatures for this time of year, yet by no means extreme. Conditions will begin to cool down by Thursday and Friday. -CZS && .AVIATION...20/18Z TAFs...Onshore flow is keeping marine stratus in place along the Oregon coast as well as into the umpqua Valley at the start of the TAF period, with MVFR levels in these areas. A wind change to offshore flow will break this layer up by the afternoon, with a return to onshore flow bringing marine stratus back to North Bend and possibly into the Umpqua Valley later tonight into early Sunday morning. Inland levels look to remain at VFR through the TAF period, with only normal diurnal winds. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Siskiyou and Modoc counties this afternoon, but are not expected to reach into Oregon. Any activity that develops this afternoon looks ot ease into the evening. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 400 AM PDT Saturday, June 20, 2026...Fresh swell will keep steep seas in the outer waters this morning. North winds then increase this afternoon into early next week. This includes gusty, advisory strength northerly winds south of Cape Blanco, approaching gale force on Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. Meantime, steep seas are likely north of Cape Blanco in the outer waters through Sunday morning, and for all of the northern waters Sunday afternoon through Monday night. Long-term guidance suggests the thermal trough will stay in place next week, with guidance divided over a slight decrease or slight increase in winds for Tuesday into Thursday (including gales possible south of Cape Blanco, strongest south of Gold Beach). && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-370-376. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for PZZ356-376. && $$