FXUS66 KMFR 201100

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

400 AM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...



Key Points:



* Only minor/limited impacts expected the next several days

    - Another warm day today with records in jeopardy

    - Frost/freeze potential Saturday night/Sunday morning

    - Breezy winds on Tuesday coupled with low RH for eastside



Further Details:



A ridge of high pressure will finally break down late today/tonight. 

Before this ridge breaks down, we will see another warm day across 

the region with several climate sites potentially breaking records 

as some areas reach the upper 70s and lower 80s again today. 



Once the ridge breaks down, we will see a weak trough pass through 

the PacNW which will bring a front into the region. This front will 

likely bring very little rainfall for westside areas and may end up 

being more of a drizzle. The bigger story is behind the front as 

colder air settles over the forecast area, especially in the 

agricultural sense given the growing season is underway. At this 

time, eastside areas have the best shot of seeing temperatures below 

freezing which is not too uncommon for this time of year. For 

example, normal lows for Klamath Falls this time of year is in the 

upper 20s. Northern Klamath and Lake counties may be in the upper 

teens to lower 20s for overnight lows. Westside areas where 

sensitive vegetation may be an issue will need to be monitored as 

temperatures could be down around 32-34 overnight Saturday into 

Sunday morning. Lower elevations on the westside have around a 10-50 

percent probability for temperatures below freezing. Normal lows for 

Medford this time of year is around 38. Anyone with agricultural 

interest and/or sensitive vegetation should keep an eye on the 

forecast leading to Saturday night/Sunday morning. 



The pattern aloft turns mostly zonal into early parts of next week. 

A slightly stronger trough than the one this Saturday enters the 

region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rainfall from this system will likely 

produce higher amounts albeit still on the lower end overall 

relatively speaking for this time of year. Tuesday in particular 

will see breezy wind speeds for eastside areas. This will be 

combined with low RH values in the 20 percent range with 

precipitation likely not amounting to much on the eastside. Given 

the lack precipitation we could continue to see at least an elevated 

threat for fire weather conditions Tuesday for eastside areas. To 

some extent, we could see these elevated conditions continue through 

Wednesday but at this time wind speeds may not be as high as 

Tuesday. 



Regarding today's fire weather concerns, we will see elevated 

conditions as RH values drop down into the teens and lower 20 

percent range for eastside areas. That said, wind speeds will be on 

the lower end today and keeping us from any higher concerns.  



&&



.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...



VFR conditions prevail for inland areas through the Friday 

afternoon. A mix of IFR to MVFR conditions are forecast to return 

to the coast late tonight into Friday morning, including at North 

Bend. This will be widespread from Cape Blanco northward along the

coast and into the Coquille Valley with areas of MVFR/IFR 

affecting the coast south of Cape Blanco. These conditions will 

linger along the coast Friday afternoon and evening. Areas of MVFR

ceilings will spread into the Umpqua Basin Friday evening and 

Friday night. 



&&



.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Friday, March 20, 2026...Conditions 

will remain below advisory levels through this evening. A thermal 

trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds and 

steep seas for southern waters. Gales are possible this weekend, 

and steep to very steep seas possible Monday. A Hazardous Seas 

Watch has been issued for Saturday morning through early Monday 

for areas south of Port Orford. The outlook is for conditions to 

briefly improve Monday afternoon and evening. Advisory strength 

winds are likely around the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe as 

another cold front swings through the waters. Gales are also 

possible if the front is strong enough.



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 5 

     AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. 



Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday 

     night for PZZ376. 



&&



$$