FXUS66 KMFR 192338

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

438 PM PDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.UPDATE...Aviation discussion updated. 





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.DISCUSSION...Unusually warm temperatures mixed with some fire 

weather concerns are the main headlines in the forecast for 

today. The fire weather conditions are discussed in the Fire 

Weather section below. We set 6 temperature records yesterday with

North Bend the only site missing out due to some onshore flow and

coastal stratus.



The Extreme Forecast Index(EFI) continues to show widespread 

values of 1 today. This suggests the ECMWF ensemble members are 

all exceeding the model climatology in widespread areas. The 500 

mb heights around 586dm are also in the extremes of climatology 

for this time of year in northern California. This will continue

to result in daytime temperatures pushing 15 to 25 degrees above 

normal for mid March with multiple records potentially falling 

yet again today.



Alturas' record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall. 

Mount Shasta City's record of 74 will fall to a high around 82. 

Montague's record of 77 will probably fall to a high around 79. 

Medford's record of 81 could be tied or perhaps fall. 

Klamath Falls' record of 72 will fall to a high around 76. 

Roseburg's record of 81 will likely stand today as we're only

forecasting a high of 76 up there. There will be some weak lift

farther to the north in Central Oregon, so some high clouds 

could keep things a little cooler up there. There is also some

stronger onshore flow there as well. 



By Friday, the ridge begins to break down as 500 mb heights start

to lower over Oregon and northern California. Even with the

breakdown, we're still expecting some more temperature records to

fall across the region. Eventually, a short wave and cold front

will push into the forecast area around Saturday morning with a

slight chance of rain. No wind, hydro, or winter impacts are 

anticipated with this frontal passage. Temperatures will trend 

cooler as relatively cooler air moves in behind the front.

Surprisingly enough, given the record-brekaing warmth of the last

several days, we may see frost return to the West Side valleys,

and a few areas could see freezing conditions, Saturday night into

Sunday morning. Essentially, all the blooms we have seen recently

are at risk of cold temperatures this weekend. 



Monday will be a be a break between the systems before models 

want to spin up another low in the Pacific. The GFS low center 

still seems to be too far east compared to the ensemble range. In 

any case, the probability of precipitation forecast is around 60 

to 80 percent Tuesday into Wednesday with snow levels dropping 

down to 4000 feet or lower behind the front. Don't count on a lot

of snow with this system as only a few inches are anticipated in 

the Cascades. However, we will see another round of cold

temperatures, with frost and freeze even more likely Wednesday 

night into Thursday morning. 



-Smith/BPN





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.AVIATION...20/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail for inland areas 

through the TAF period. A mix of IFR to LIFR conditions are forecast 

to return to the coast tonight and early Friday morning, including 

at North Bend. This will mainly impact areas from Cape Blanco north 

along the coast and into the Coquille Valley. Then conditions lift 

around 15-17z with MVFR spreading into the coast and coastal 

valleys. 





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.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, March 19, 2026...Conditions

will remain below advisory levels through Friday evening. A thermal 

trough develops early Saturday, bringing gusty north winds with 

gales possible into Sunday, and steep to very steep seas possible 

into Monday. A Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued for Saturday 

morning through early Monday for areas south of Port Orford. The 

outlookis for conditions to briefly improve Monday afternoon and 

evening. Advisory strength winds are likely around the Tuesday and 

Wednesday timeframe as another cold front swings through the waters. 

Gales are also possible if the front is strong enough. -Hermansen



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ624-625. 



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Watch from Saturday morning 

     through late Sunday night for PZZ376. 



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$$