FXUS66 KMFR 060939

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

239 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026



.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...



Key Points:



* Limited impacts the next several days

    - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures

    - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal 

* Drying trend starts today  

    - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time



Further Details:



A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region today as a 

long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS. 

Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for 

the region through much of the forecast with one caveat Friday. 

There will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW on Friday, but 

this is very progressive in the eastward progression and will likely 

only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Friday is the 

overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting 

above normal temperatures on this day. 



There is a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to 

essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This could 

result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions 

which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels. 

Through May, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a strong 

signal for above normal temperatures, and a weak signal for below 

normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this 

trend to continue May-June-July with El Nino chances likely (61% 

chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least 

the end of 2026. 



-Guerrero



&&



.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...



A fairly deep marine layer exists along the coast this evening 

with MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft. These ceilings briefly broke at

North Bend this afternoon into this evening, but will return 

overnight and could lower to IFR at times as well (in the 500-1000

ft range). Ceilings are expected to fill into the Umpqua Basin 

again later tonight, so MVFR is likely to return to Roseburg and 

last through most of the morning before breaking to VFR after 18Z.

Medford should remain VFR, though patches of stratus could spill 

through gaps in the Umpqua Divide to near Grants Pass. Stratus 

impacting the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley (near 

Redding) has expanded into areas near and just south/southeast of 

Mt. Shasta (far SE Siskiyou/SW Modoc counties) and will persist 

into mid-morning before breaking to VFR again. Elsewhere, 

conditions will remain VFR through Wednesday evening.



-Spilde/DW



&&



.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...An extended

period of relatively calm conditions will continue through 

Friday, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining 

below 8 ft. Wind speeds briefly increase Thursday morning south of

Cape Blanco, but remain below advisory conditions and quickly 

diminish in the afternoon. A thermal trough will develop Saturday 

morning and strengthen through the weekend, resulting in gusty 

north winds and steep seas through early next week.



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.



&&



$$