FXUS66 KMFR 041221

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

521 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026



.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...



Key Points:



* Only minor impacts expected the next several days

* Warm, above normal temperatures continue this week

* Low pressure remains to our south through midweek

    - Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances continue today

    - Similar setup for Tuesday with isolated thunderstorms

* Drying trend starts Wednesday 



Further Details:



A closed low remains to our south and will maintain an east to 

northeast flow aloft. As we reach peak heating and convective 

temperatures, we should see showers and isolated thunderstorms this 

afternoon and early evening. This would be mainly for areas along 

and near the Cascades, westside areas south of the Umpqua divide, 

and northern California. We are not expected severe weather, but 

deep mixing and very dry low levels (inverted-v profiles) could lead 

to occasional gusts around 45 mph. This would be very isolated to 

the strongest storms today through peak heating. Lightning will be 

the other hazard. This closed low doesn't move much Tuesday, and we 

may see a very similar outcome with isolated thunderstorms over 

these same areas through peaking heating. Similar threats would be 

expected Tuesday with occasional strong gusts and lightning as the 

main threats.  



High pressure aloft starts to nudge in Wednesday and will maintain 

dry conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures near 90 

degrees will come to fruition Wed/Thurs. Slightly cooler 

temperatures expected on Fri/Sat, but temperature near 90 will be 

possible again on Sunday. 



-Guerrero



&&



.AVIATION...



Areas of fog and low clouds are expected through today along the

coast which the possibility of these low clouds spilling into the

Umpqua basin. These areas could see IFR/MVFR conditions this

morning and early afternoon with some improvement today for KRBG.

However, KOTH will likely see these low clouds stick around 

throughout this cycle. Otherwise, isolated showers and

thunderstorms are possible through peak heating, which could 

impact both KMFR and KLMT. At this time only went with vicinity as

confidence is low given the isolated nature of showers today.



-Guerrero



&&



.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Monday, May 4, 2026...An extended 

period of relatively calm conditions has begun, with west-northwest 

swell dominated seas likely remaining below 10 ft through Friday. 

Light south winds and fog are expected through today, with gradually 

diminishing seas. Moderate north winds likely develop on Friday with 

the return of the thermal trough. Stronger north winds are possible 

Saturday into next week.



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.



&&



$$