FXUS66 KLOX 240123 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 623 PM PDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS...23/118 PM. Dry and warmer conditions are expected Friday as high pressure returns. Then cooler conditions are expected over the weekend but temperatures will still be near normal. Next week a strong high pressure ridge will develop for much warmer temperatures as well as some gusty northerly winds at times. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...23/137 PM. Very low impact weather across the area through at least Saturday as a weak upper ridge replaces the departed upper low. Weakening onshore flow will create a modest warming trend today and Friday before a trough deepens along the West coast Saturday and Sunday and cools things off a bit. May have some areas of morning low clouds and fog but those should clear off by afternoon. By Sunday night into Monday, following the trough passage into the northern Rockies and northern portion of the Great Basin, northerly winds will increase across the area, but particularly southern Santa Barbara County (Sundowners), the coastal waters, and portions of the Transverse Range, especially the Grapevine region. At least a 70% chance wind advisories in those areas and a 10-20% chance of high wind warnings. A warming trend will begin Monday as a strong high pressure ridge builds in from the Pacific. Highs in most areas will warm around 5 degrees from Sunday. Northerly gradients are expected to peak Monday night into Tuesday and some of those winds will surface down into some of the LA valleys, Santa Monica Mountains, and possibly the Santa Monica Bay and across parts of the west LA. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...23/150 PM. While northerly winds start to diminish early next week, temperatures will be warming up quite a bit as that strong high pressure system moves over the West coast. Models are indicating 500 heights of around 591dam late Tuesday into Wednesday with light offshore gradients to the east between 1 and 3mb. Chances for any Santa Ana winds have decreased but the chances for very warm temperatures are high. By Tuesday and Wednesday highs during World Series week are expected to be at least in the 80s in most areas except right at beaches and well into the 90s in some of the warmer valleys. There is even about a 10% chance of highs near 100 in parts of the San Fernando Valley and low 90s in Downtown LA, which would be 10-20 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...24/0047Z. At 2330Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1100 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 3200 ft with a temperature of 20 C. High confidence in VFR conds for the desert and valley TAFs, and moderate confidence in the coastal TAF sites. Moderate confidence that KSBP will remain VFR through the period, but there is a 30% chance of LIFR conds between 09Z to 16Z. Otherwise generally LIFR conds forecast for KSMX and KSBA, IFR conds for the Ventura sites, and IFR to MVFR for the LA Coastal sites. The timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may off by +/- 2 hours and by one flight category. KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Low-end MVFR 010-015 to high-end IFR >008 forecast from 08Z to 17Z Fri, but the timing could be off by +/- 2 hours. No significant east wind component expected through forecast period. KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE...23/510 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected across the outer waters and inner waters along the central coast at times through this weekend. Winds will be the strongest near Point Conception down to San Nicolas Island - This area has a 30% chc of GALE force wind gusts during afternoon/eve hours on Sunday & Monday. Moderate chc for SCA winds across Santa Barbara Channel Saturday through Monday - Sunday is most likely to impact eastern portion. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Monday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Ciliberti MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox