FXUS66 KEKA 202221

AFDEKA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Eureka CA

321 PM PDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonable warmth with widespread minor heat risk in

the interior is forecast to abate this weekend into early next week.

Coastal northerlies will increase on Saturday after passage of a 

front. Next chance for rain is expected Tuesday into Wednesday.





&&



.DISCUSSION...A persistent and anomalously strong ridge centered 

over the Desert Southwest continued to bring unseasonably warm 

temperatures Friday. A cold front was observed on water vapor 

imagery riding above the ridge. The ridge will finally begin to 

weaken as the front progresses southward and flow gradually turns 

more zonal aloft. 



Little to no precipitation is expected with this front, but 

persistent light, coastal drizzle may accumulate a few hundredths 

of an inch Friday night through Saturday morning. Northerly winds 

will turn breezy Saturday with the passing of the front. Daytime 

temperatures will be significantly cooler Saturday behind the 

front, but inland temperatures will still remain above 

climatological normals with strengthening surface high pressure. 



A stronger frontal system will descend southward Tuesday. Models are 

torn on how much precipitation falls with it, which may only be a 

half inch or so over northern Humboldt and Del Norte. A small 

percentage of ensemble members, mainly from GFS, hold 6 hour 

rainfall amounts of up to an inch for Del Norte. This front will 

contain anomalously high precipitable water values (over 200% 

percent of normal), enhanced 925 mb southerly winds (around 

2000ft up), and relatively high IVT values. The front will be very

quick moving, but a brief period of heavy rainfall rates are 

possible. If the low takes a farther track north, there will be 

much less rainfall and lighter southerly winds. The NBM 90th 

percentile (worst case) does show a period of maximum gusts up to 

40 mph, so the systems will be watched. 





&&



.AVIATION...Shallow marine stratus has advanced in ahead of a 

cold front. The stratus has brought LIFR CIGs down to 200 ft 

Friday afternoon. The front will bring chances for light drizzle

and for deepening/lifting of the ceiling. Current probability for

ceilings levels less than 500 ft are relative high through 12Z 

Saturday (40 to 60%), with a likely turn to IFR thereafter. MOS 

guidance is beginning to hang on to LIFR levels longer Saturday, 

but the pattern favors some lifting. Northerly winds will turn 

breezy Saturday afternoon behind the front.    









&&



.MARINE...Calmer winds and seas will come to an end today as 

northerly winds increase over the southern waters with wind gusts 

over 25kts by this evening. Winds will continue to build and spread 

northward with gale conditions in the outer waters by Saturday 

afternoon. Gusts close to 25 kts will most likely push right 

alongshore with the afternoon sea breeze. Similar winds will persist 

Sunday before tapering off early next week.



Steep short period seas will build alongside the winds in excess of 

11 feet at 9 seconds by Saturday night. Even where winds are weaker 

in the inner waters, steep seas will permeate close to shore. Wind 

waves will dominate the environment with only very weak swells 

through the weekend. /JHW





&&



.CLIMATE...



Station/Forecast/Record/Date

-------/--------/------/---- 

KCEC       64      76   1930 

KEKA       62      67   2004 

KUKI      *91      85   1960

---------------------------- 

*(Potential Tied or Broken Record)





&&



.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...

None.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 3 PM PDT Sunday 

     for PZZ450.



     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT 

     Sunday for PZZ455.



     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Saturday for 

     PZZ470.



     Gale Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for 

     PZZ470-475.



     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.



&&



$$



NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between

10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.



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For forecast zone information

see the forecast zone map online:

https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png