FXUS65 KVEF 201916

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

1215 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Near-normal temperatures and elevated fire danger expected across 

  the region today before winds subside and temperatures rise 

  through the work week.



* Slight chances of isolated showers and thunderstorms mid-to-late

  week as monsoonal moisture surges northward.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday.



Weak trough that brought the windy conditions over the past couple 

of days will continue to shift east allowing high pressure to expand 

north from Mexico into the Desert Southwest. Breezy conditions this 

afternoon across east central Nevada will lead to enhanced fire 

weather conditions, but with lighter winds expected Sunday that 

threat will be reduced. Temperatures will steadily climb over the 

next few days with readings expected to be near-10 degrees above-

normal by midweek along with widespread Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2 

of 4). There will also be some pockets of Major Heat Risk (Level 3 

of 4) across portions of the Las Vegas Valley, Death Valley, the 

lower Colorado River Valley. 



Ensemble means continue to show monsoonal moisture pushing northward 

during the middle portions of next week. How far north the moisture 

expands is still in question, but the latest model runs indicate the 

0.75" PW line working as far north as the I-15 corridor with the 

1.00" line reaching as far north as a Twentynine Palms to Laughlin 

to Kingman line by Thursday afternoon. There remains some 

uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of the center of 

the aforementioned high pressure system and any minor shifts could 

result in increased or decreased chances of precipitation across the 

forecast area. At this point, instability remains fairly weak and 

the better chances of showers and thunderstorms look to remain over 

the higher terrain (~20%). Another trough moving into the west coast 

late in the week is forecast to bring in much drier air with any 

monsoonal moisture being shoved east by the weekend. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast 

Package...South winds are expected through the afternoon, gusting 15-

20KT. Gusts over 20KT are possible (50% chance) between 22Z to 01Z 

as winds shift to around 220 degrees (true). Gusts will end around 

sunset. Elevated south winds at 8-10KT are expected through much of 

the night before becoming light early Sunday morning. Winds on 

Sunday will be lighter than they have been the past few days with no 

gusts expected. East to southeast winds around 8KT are expected on 

Sunday. VFR skies. Smoke from nearby wildfires should not reduce 

visibility or CIGs directly at the terminals through the period, 

though wildfire smoke may impact slantwise visibility at times. 

Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 21Z-01Z today, then 

again after 21Z on Sunday.



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...West winds at 10-15KT 

are expected at KDAG with gusts over 25KT late this afternoon 

through the evening. Elsewhere, breezy south to southwest winds are 

expected with widespread 15-25KT gusts expected. Winds will diminish 

after sunset with gusts ending for most locations by 03Z. Typical 

light wind patterns overnight and Sunday morning. VFR conditions 

persist through the period. Smoke from wildfires will advect 

northeast this afternoon in eastern Nevada into Utah, then dissipate 

as winds diminish tonight.  

&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Gorelow

AVIATION...Nickerson



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