FXUS65 KVEF 062101

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

201 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures across the region will return to normal

today with the warming trend of the past few days continuing

through the end of the work week. Dry conditions will also

continue through the end of the week thanks to the ridge of high

pressure building over the Western US. Winds will pick up across

the western Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin on Monday with

light winds returning on Tuesday and Wednesday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...through next Sunday. 



Temperatures across the region will return to normal today, with 

afternoon high temperatures topping out around 5 to 10 degrees 

warmer than yesterday. This warming trend will continue through the 

end of the work week as an upper-level ridge builds over the Western 

US. A shortwave trough will move through the Pacific Northwest on 

Monday, flattening the ridge and bringing breezy westerly winds to 

the western Mojave Desert and eastern Sierra with breezy southerly 

winds across the southern Great Basin. Wind gusts in these areas 

will top out in the 25 mph to 35 mph range with isolated gusts up to 

40 mph possible in areas of higher terrain. While this shortwave 

will flatten our upper-level ridge, it won't completely stop our 

warming trend, it will just slow it down from Monday to Tuesday. The 

upper-level ridge will begin rebuilding over the Western US on 

Tuesday and will continue to be the dominant synoptic feature across 

the west through the end of the work week. This will allow for our 

warming trend to continue through Friday with temperatures reaching 

10 to 15 degrees above normal by mid-week and 15 to 20 degrees above 

normal by Friday. These hotter than normal temperatures will yield 

Minor HeatRisk (Level 1 of 4) across most of our forecast area by 

mid-week with Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) in Death Valley and 

the Colorado River Valley. Moderate HeatRisk will affect those 

without adequate access to cooling or hydration as well as those who 

have not had the chance to acclimate to these temperatures. As such, 

make sure you stay hydrated and protect yourself from the sun if you 

have outdoor plans during the second half of the week. 



Forecast confidence decreases as we head into the weekend due to 

interensemble variability regarding the timing and the strength of 

an incoming system. Majority of the ECMWF members favor a solution 

with a weaker shortwave trough quickly moving through the Pacific 

Northwest over the weekend, whereas majority of the GFS ensemble 

members favor a solution with a deeper trough slowly moving through 

the area over the weekend. Given these differences in system 

strength and speed, it isn't surprising that the ECMWF mean solution 

has lighter winds and warmer temperatures over the weekend whereas 

the GFS mean favors cooler temperatures and stronger winds. 

Regardless of which of these solutions ends up panning out, we can 

still expect breezier conditions over the weekend with decreasing 

temperatures. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light

winds following mainly diurnal patterns are expected for a

majority of the forecast period. By 15Z Monday, winds will become

variable before settling out of the southwest early afternoon,

with speeds then expected to increase to around 10-12KT with

intermittent gusts to 18KT expected 22Z-23Z onward. VFR 

conditions prevail, with passing high clouds around 25kft.



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast

California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...For most terminals

across the region, light winds under 8KT following diurnal wind

patterns are expected the next 24 hours, with a few exceptions.

First, KIFP will see northerly winds gusting to around 18KT 

within the first couple of hours of the forecast period before

diminishing. At KDAG, winds will remain westerly, though become 

intermittently gusty this evening onward with gusts to 15-18KT 

expected. And, at KHND, while winds will be diurnal, southerly 

winds overnight will strengthen, with sustained speeds around 

10-12KT with limited gusts. Otherwise, VFR conditions with passing

high clouds will continue.



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Stessman

AVIATION...Phillipson



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