FXUS65 KVEF 050850

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

150 AM PDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Gusty southwest winds, cooler conditions, and light precipitation 

  chances continue today.



* Temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above-normal late-week.



&&





.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.



A closed area of low pressure will push into the Desert Southwest 

through the day today, ushering in 0.40 to 0.60 inches of PWAT along 

with it. As the center of the low pushes into Arizona this 

afternoon, the northerly flow on the back-end of the trough will 

dictate storm motion across the forecast area today. Scattered 

showers and isolated thunderstorms will form over the southern Great 

Basin as well as across northern Mohave County through the morning 

and will gradually push southward through the day. With 500 to 800 

J/kg of DCAPE, expect wind gusts in excess of 40 mph with stronger 

storms that form. Finally, thunderstorm outflows have the potential 

to push moisture further south into the Mojave Desert, resulting in 

a 10 percent chance of shower and thunderstorm activity in the 

higher terrain of central Inyo, Clark, and southern Mohave counties 

as well.



Behind this weather system, ridging returns over the region mid-to-

late week, resulting in temperatures climbing to 10 to 15 degrees 

above-normal. Heat Risk increases to Moderate (Level 2 on a scale 0 

to 4) for desert valleys Friday through Monday, as it gradually 

spreads across the Mojave Desert heading into the next work week. 

Meanwhile, Heat Risk in the higher terrain of the southern Great 

Basin and Mojave Desert including the Spring Mountains and Sheep 

Range will increase to a Minor (Level 1 on a scale of 0 to 4). This 

level of heat affects those extremely sensitive to heat, which 

includes populations consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs. 

Las Vegas has a 30 percent chance of observing the first 100 of the 

year on Sunday and a 75 percent chance on Monday.

&&





.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... 

Elevated and at least intermittently gusty southwesterly winds 

will continue through Tuesday evening. Gusts to around 20-25KT 

will persist for the first few hours of the period, with moderate 

to high confidence in a lull in wind speeds and gusts from late 

tonight through mid-morning Tuesday. Sustained speeds will drop to

around 10KT with winds backing somewhat to the south- southwest, 

with gusts expected to return by mid to late morning. Gusts 

thereafter through sunset are expected to remain under 20KT, with 

gusts finally diminishing through the evening. VFR conditions will

prevail, with mid-level and high clouds with bases at or above 

12kft through the period. There is a very low (10%) chance for 

showers to develop over the higher terrain surrounding the Valley 

Tuesday afternoon and early evening, though impacts at the 

terminal are not currently expected. 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast

California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwesterly

winds will gradually diminish in the first few hours of the 

period, with wind speeds dropping to around 10-12KT for most 

locations overnight through Tuesday morning. Gusts will return for

by mid to late morning, though gusts will generally top out 

between 15-20KT through sunset. Exceptions include the western 

Mojave Desert including KDAG, where gusty westerly winds will 

persist, with gusts to 25-35KT through the forecast period. 

Additionally, KBIH in the northern Owens Valley will see mainly 

northwesterly wins, with speeds between 10-15KT for most of the 

forecast period, with gusts to 20-25KT by mid to late morning. 

Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over 

the southwestern Great Basin and northern Inyo County late tonight

through early to mid morning, potentially impacting KBIH with 

erratic gusty winds, lightning, and brief lower ceilings, with 

scattered to isolated thunderstorms overspreading mainly the 

southern Great Basin and other higher terrain on Tuesday 

afternoon. Ceilings will generally remain at or above 10-12kft, 

though could drop as low as 6-8kft in the vicinity of convection. 

&&





.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Soulat

AVIATION...Phillipson



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