FXUS65 KVEF 050505

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

1005 PM PDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Gusty southwest winds, cooler conditions, and precipitation 

  chances continue through Tuesday.



* Temperatures climb to over 10 degrees above-normal late-week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday.



Gusty south to southwest winds will continue today, particularly 

across the western Mojave Desert. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 

degrees below normal through Tuesday but those cooler temperatures 

won't be around for long. Expect scattered shower and isolated 

thunderstorm activity this afternoon across northern Inyo and 

Esmeralda counties. An impulse will act to enhance convection this 

evening in northern Inyo county keeping showers and thunderstorms 

through midnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are 

expected on Tuesday but will expand to include Nye and Lincoln 

counties by late afternoon and evening. With DCAPE values of 600-

800+ J/kg, wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are possible with any 

thunderstorms. 



Once the current weather system moves to the east on Wednesday, 

temperatures will increase rapidly during the second half of the 

week, rising on average 20 degrees by Friday under a building ridge 

of high pressure. Further warming and dry conditions will continue 

over the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast

Package...Elevated and at least intermittently gusty 

southwesterly winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Gusts 

to around 20-25KT will persist for the first few hours of the 

period, with moderate to high confidence in a lull in wind speeds 

and gusts from late tonight through mid-morning Tuesday. Sustained

speeds will drop to around 10KT with winds backing somewhat to 

the south- southwest, with gusts expected to return by mid to late

morning. Gusts thereafter through sunset are expected to remain 

under 20KT, with gusts finally diminishing through the evening. 

VFR conditions will prevail, with mid-level and high clouds with 

bases at or above 12kft through the period. There is a very low 

(10%) chance for showers to develop over the higher terrain 

surrounding the Valley Tuesday afternoon and early evening, though

impacts at the terminal are not currently expected. 





For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast

California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwesterly

winds will gradually diminish in the first few hours of the 

period, with wind speeds dropping to around 10-12KT for most 

locations overnight through Tuesday morning. Gusts will return for

by mid to late morning, though gusts will generally top out 

between 15-20KT through sunset. Exceptions include the western 

Mojave Desert including KDAG, where gusty westerly winds will 

persist, with gusts to 25-35KT through the forecast period. 

Additionally, KBIH in the northern Owens Valley will see mainly 

northwesterly wins, with speeds between 10-15KT for most of the 

forecast period, with gusts to 20-25KT by mid to late morning. 

Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop over 

the southwestern Great Basin and northern Inyo County late tonight

through early to mid morning, potentially impacting KBIH with 

erratic gusty winds, lightning, and brief lower ceilings, with 

scattered to isolated thunderstorms overspreading mainly the 

southern Great Basin and other higher terrain on Tuesday 

afternoon. Ceilings will generally remain at or above 10-12kft, 

though could drop as low as 6-8kft in the vicinity of convection. 



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Czyzyk

AVIATION...Phillipson



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