FXUS65 KVEF 040901 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 201 AM PDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty southwest winds, cooler conditions, and light precipitation chances continue through Tuesday. * Temperatures climb to over 10 degrees above-normal late-week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday. Temperatures will drop 8 to 12 degrees this afternoon compared to yesterday as a closed area of low pressure approaches the region. Breezy southwest winds will continue across the forecast area this afternoon with gusts between 20 and 30 mph. The exception will be in western San Bernardino County where gusty west winds will peak between 40 and 45 mph. For this zone, the Wind Advisory will continue until 11 PM tonight. A shortwave embedded in the upper- level trough will push through the southwestern Great Basin this afternoon as it taps into 0.40-0.50 inches of PWAT. As a result, expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye counties this afternoon. Showers will generally produce between 0.10 and 0.25 inches of rain. With thunderstorm activity, expect locally heavier rainfall as well as gusty winds from their direction. The center of the low will move overhead on Tuesday, which will return shower and thunderstorm activity to the southern Great Basin for one final day before dry conditions return for the remainder of the work week. Mid-to-late week, ridging returns over the region, resulting in temperatures climbing to over 10 degrees above-normal. Heat Risk increases to Moderate (Level 2 on a scale 0 to 4) for desert valleys Friday through Sunday, as it gradually spreads across the Mojave Desert heading into the next work week. Las Vegas has a 15 percent chance of observing the first 100 of the year on Saturday and a 40 percent chance on Sunday. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty winds remain the primary concern through the forecast period. Elevated southwesterly winds with sustained speeds around 10-12KT are expected early in the period with sporadic higher gusts to around 20KT possible. There is still moderate confidence in a brief lull and a shift to a more southerly direction late tonight through mid-morning, before gusty southwesterly winds resume. Sustained speeds between 15-20KT and gusts to 25-28KT will continue thereafter through at least late evening, with winds expected to diminish overnight. During the late afternoon, intermittent higher gusts closer to 30KT may occur, however, expectation is for gusts to remain below that threshold. VFR conditions will prevail with SCT-BKN clouds passing over the area with bases at or above 10kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty southwesterly winds are gradually diminishing across the area, though sustained speeds overnight will remain around 10-12KT, and sporadic higher gusts to around 15-18KT possible. Mid morning, gusty southerly to southwesterly winds resume, with speeds generally around 15-18KT with gusts to 20-30KT common thereafter through the end of the period. Exceptions to this include the western Mojave Desert where gusty west-southwesterly winds will continue for the duration, with gusts to 35-40KT expected, as well as KBIH in the northern Owens Valley, where light northwesterly winds will continue through late morning before gusty up-valley winds resume late morning. Showers and thunderstorms are also expected on Monday afternoon and evening, particularly across the Sierra and Owens Valley and across the southwestern Great Basin. These storms will be capable of producing erratic gusty winds, lightning strikes, and localized reductions in ceilings and/or visibility. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with SCT-BKN ceilings at or above 12kft, and as low as 8kft in the vicinity of convection. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Soulat AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter