FXUS65 KVEF 031714

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

914 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Quiet weather continues through Thursday, with above normal

  temperatures and gusty north winds along portions of the Lower 

  Colorado River Valley.



* A pattern shift is expected to begin Friday through early next

  week, accompanied by a slow cooling trend, increasing moisture,

  and the return of precipitation chances to portions of the 

  area, though details remain uncertain. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...Through early next week.



Per latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa analysis, high-

amplitude ridging remains in place over the western CONUS, with 

a flattening trough east of the Rockies. Locally, this ridge will 

maintain our streak of unseasonably warm, dry days, with light 

winds for most outside of the Lower Colorado River Valley. In the 

wake of a subtle shortwave that moved through the region, 

northerly winds today will ramp up from around Laughlin to near 

Lake Havasu City, with the strongest winds localized in the 

vicinity of Laughlin and Lake Mohave, where wave heights of 1-3 

feet can be expected. These winds will continue through Wednesday 

as the surface pressure gradient is maintained between the 

aforementioned ridge and a developing area of low pressure off of 

the Baja Coast. Thereafter, the ridge begins deamplifying, 

resulting in a slackening of the gradient and subsequent decrease 

in winds.



Friday through early next week, ensembles are in agreement that a 

pattern shift will begin taking shape, resulting in a change from 

the quiescent conditions we've had the past few weeks. A gradual 

decrease in temperatures as well as a subtle increase in moisture 

is expected Friday and Saturday in response to the aforementioned 

Baja low, progged to eject northeastward and dampen as it 

translates across the Desert Southwest. Given a lack of moisture 

with this wave, the most tangible impact will be an increase in 

clouds and cooler, still above normal temperatures. However, light

rain/sprinkles cannot be ruled out, especially along and south of

Interstate 15. In the wake of this shortwave, Sunday will see a 

quick transition to southwesterly flow aloft as a substantial, 

deepening trough over the West Coast shunts the ridge eastward 

across the Rockies, with this trough likely to be the next 

weather-maker for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and 

northwestern Arizona next week. Cluster analyses and ensembles are

in good agreement regarding this shift, with cooler temperatures 

and increased precipitation chances likely with this system. 

However, details remain uncertain at this time, so stay tuned.



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Light 

northeast winds under 8KT are expected today, direction favoring 030-

040 degrees (true). Winds will transition to the northwest after 

sunset and will likely continue through the overnight. A period of 

west-southwest wind is possible at KLAS from 07Z to 10Z, but it 

would be brief and speeds would remain light before winds transition 

back to the northwest by 10Z for the rest of the night. Expect 

breezy northeast winds to develop around 18Z Wednesday with gusts up 

to 20KT likely through the afternoon. SKC expected through the 

period. 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty north winds are 

expected in the Colorado River Valley today. Gusts 20-30KT are 

likely with isolated gusts over 30KT around KIFP. Winds will 

diminish slightly after sunset but remain elevated overnight as 

north winds continue at 10-15KT with occasional gusts to around 

20KT. North gusts at 20-30KT in the Colorado River Valley will 

return Wednesday morning after sunrise. Elsewhere, light windsshould follow typical daytime and nighttime directions through 

Wednesday morning, potentially favoring the north to northeast but 

speeds will remain under 10KT. SKC expected areawide through 

Wednesday morning.



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Phillipson

AVIATION...Nickerson





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