FXUS65 KVEF 030936 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 136 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet weather continues through Thursday, with above normal temperatures and gusty north winds along portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley. * A pattern shift is expected to begin Friday through early next week, accompanied by a slow cooling trend, increasing moisture, and the return of precipitation chances to portions of the area, though details remain uncertain. && .DISCUSSION...Through early next week. Per latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa analysis, high- amplitude ridging remains in place over the western CONUS, with a flattening trough east of the Rockies. Locally, this ridge will maintain our streak of unseasonably warm, dry days, with light winds for most outside of the Lower Colorado River Valley. In the wake of a subtle shortwave that moved through the region, northerly winds today will ramp up from around Laughlin to near Lake Havasu City, with the strongest winds localized in the vicinity of Laughlin and Lake Mohave, where wave heights of 1-3 feet can be expected. These winds will continue through Wednesday as the surface pressure gradient is maintained between the aforementioned ridge and a developing area of low pressure off of the Baja Coast. Thereafter, the ridge begins deamplifying, resulting in a slackening of the gradient and subsequent decrease in winds. Friday through early next week, ensembles are in agreement that a pattern shift will begin taking shape, resulting in a change from the quiescent conditions we've had the past few weeks. A gradual decrease in temperatures as well as a subtle increase in moisture is expected Friday and Saturday in response to the aforementioned Baja low, progged to eject northeastward and dampen as it translates across the Desert Southwest. Given a lack of moisture with this wave, the most tangible impact will be an increase in clouds and cooler, still above normal temperatures. However, light rain/sprinkles cannot be ruled out, especially along and south of Interstate 15. In the wake of this shortwave, Sunday will see a quick transition to southwesterly flow aloft as a substantial, deepening trough over the West Coast shunts the ridge eastward across the Rockies, with this trough likely to be the next weather-maker for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona next week. Cluster analyses and ensembles are in good agreement regarding this shift, with cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances likely with this system. However, details remain uncertain at this time, so stay tuned. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds following typical directional patterns are expected through early Wednesday morning. Speeds will likely (90%+ chance) remain under 8KT through the period. Just a few high clouds at times. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light winds following typical daytime and nighttime directions are expected through Tuesday in most locations across the region. In the Colorado River Valley, northerly winds will diminish to around 10-12kts through the overnight period and then redevelop and strengthen after 16Z near KIFP with gusts 20-25KT likely. VFR conditions will persist with just a few high clouds at times. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Phillipson AVIATION...Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter