FXUS65 KTWC 202036

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

136 PM MST Fri Mar 20 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Historic March heat wave will continue into this

weekend with daily and monthly record highs for March being set. 

Visitors, seasonal residents, and other people not typically 

accustomed to or acclimated to extreme heat are especially urged 

to take precautions during the hottest hours of the day during 

this period and limit outdoor activity.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Very anomalous high pressure will be in place

through the weekend leading to continued record breaking

temperatures for southeast Arizona. 100 degree highs will be

possible in Tucson today and Saturday with smaller chances Sunday.

A weak shortwave will move through Monday shunting the center of 

the high to the south. This will result in a few degrees of 

cooling Sunday into Tuesday. However high temperatures will still 

be in record territory during this time.



After Tuesday the center of the high pressure reconsolidates over

Arizona, which will likely result in the return of triple digit

temperatures from Tucson westward Wednesday and Thursday. Even

with the very small reprieve in temperatures early next week

record high temperatures across southeast Arizona will be likely 

each of the next 7 days. 



However there is still some hope on the horizon. Long range

ensembles show moisture possibly moving in from the south late

next weekend into the following week which could bring some rain

chances and slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures.

This is reflected in the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, 

which show a 33-40 percent chance of above normal precipitation 

for southeast Arizona. 



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z. 

SKC through the period. SFC winds NWLY 6-12 kts with ocnl gusts 

to 18 kts this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. At other times

winds will be less than 10 kts and terrain driven. Aviation 

discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...A unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will

result in record setting high temperatures and very dry conditions

through this weekend. Significant heat is forecast through Sunday

with high temperatures pushing 20 to 25 degree above normal. 

Winds through Saturday will remain below 10 mph with a few

afternoon gusts around 20 mph. Breezier conditions return on both

Sunday and Monday as the high pressure begins to weaken. Minimum 

RHs 5 to 15 percent.



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.



&&



$$



Hardin



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