FXUS65 KTWC 200955

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

255 AM MST Fri Mar 20 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Historic March heat wave will continue into this

weekend with daily and monthly record highs for March being set. 

Visitors, seasonal residents, and other people not typically 

accustomed to or acclimated to extreme heat are especially urged 

to take precautions during the hottest hours of the day during 

this period and limit outdoor activity.



&&



.DISCUSSION...Record breaking heat will continue through the

weekend as an historic March heat wave impacts the area. Many

daily and monthly temperature records are expected to fall. Winds

will remain terrain driven, though daytime heating will trigger

gusty conditions each afternoon.



Days 4-7 (Mar 23-26)

The heat dome weakens slightly on Monday as a weak upper level

trof moves into the area then moves south of the border early

Tuesday. Strong high pressure aloft then redevelops over the area

Wednesday but is not forecast to be as strong as this weekend, 

thus high temperatures, although cooler than this weekend, will 

still be on the hot side for late March, 18 to 22 degrees above 

normal, making daily temperatures likely once again. The NBM is

the baseline forecast used for this period which WPC made little 

to no changes to the baseline.



8-14 day outlook (March 27 to April 2)

Temperatures: Above normal (78-88%)

Precipitation: Above normal (33-45%)



3-month seasonal outlooks through Winter 2027

According to the seasonal outlooks released by CPC yesterday, 

precipitation for southern Arizona is leaning above normal for the

next year. This trend covers nine overlapping seasons, spanning 

from April to June 2026 (AMJ) thru January to March 2027 (JFM).

The leaning above normal is associated with an emerging El Nino 

that is forecast to be present through the 2026-2027 Winter 

season.



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 21/12Z.

SKC. SFC winds thru 20/18z and after 21/03z, less than 12 kts and

terrain driven. At other hours NWLY 6-12 kts with ocnl gusts to 18

kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...A unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure will

result in record setting high temperatures and very dry conditions

through this weekend. Significant heat is forecast through Sunday

with high temperatures pushing 20 to 25 degree above normal. 

Winds through Saturday will remain below 10 mph with a few

afternoon gusts around 20 mph. Breezier conditions return on both

Sunday and Monday as the high pressure begins to weaken. Minimum 

RHs 5 to 15 percent.



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.



&&



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