FXUS65 KTWC 192023

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

123 PM MST Thu Mar 19 2026



.SYNOPSIS...

Significantly hot temperatures expected today through the 

weekend. High temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal 

during this period, especially Friday and Saturday. Visitors, 

seasonal residents, and other people not typically accustomed to 

or acclimated to extreme heat are especially urged to take 

precautions during the hottest hours of the day during this period

and limit outdoor activity.



&&



.DISCUSSION...In the short term, the main forecast story will be

centered around heat. Temperatures have risen at least 5-10 

degrees in the last 24 hours with Tucson International Airport

reaching 96F. Yesterday around the noon, it was 86F. The

anomalous high pressure is over the Southwest and it will stick 

around through the weekend. We will be experiencing the hottest 

temperatures, so far, this year, and breaking daily and monthly 

records. Tucson is on track to reach its first 100 degree during 

this period. Right now, Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through 

Sunday. Take extra pre-cautions as we are not accustom to this 

heat...in March. 



A shortwave trough, to our north, will flatten out the ridge of 

high pressure, leading to a slight cool down. Temperatures will 

still be running at least 15 degrees above normal through most of 

the new week. The flattening out of the ridge will introduce 

breezes on Sunday and Monday. This raises fire weather concerns by

the beginning of the week. 



Towards the last half of the new week, ensemble models are hinting

at increase in moisture. The ridge of high pressure will shift to

our east and slowly opening up a southerly flow, bringing in 

moisture into the southeast region. There is uncertainty on how 

this will evolve and how much moisture at this time. For now, the 

8-14 day CPC outlook has 33-50% lean for above normal 

precipitation. Something to look forward and monitor after this 

heat. 





&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 21/00Z. 

Mainly SKC through the forecast period with a few high clouds 

greater than 25k ft AGL. SFC winds less than 12 kts and terrain

driven through most of the forecast period. Tomorrow, starting

around 20/18Z, generally northwesterly less than 12 kts. There can

be the occasional afternoon gust. Aviation discussion not updated

for TAF amendments.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be centered over 

southern Arizona resulting in progressively hotter and drier 

conditions heading into the weekend. Significant heat is forecast 

today through Sunday with high temperatures pushing 20 to 25 

degree above normal. Winds through the remainder of the work week

will remain below 10 mph with a few afternoon gusts around 20 

mph. Breezier conditions return on both Sunday and Monday as the 

high pressure begins to weaken and flatten out. Minimum RHs 5 to 

15 percent.





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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.



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