FXUS65 KTWC 190830 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 130 AM MST Thu Mar 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Significantly hot temperatures expected today through the weekend. High temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal during this period, especially Friday and Saturday. Visitors, seasonal residents, and other people not typically accustomed to or acclimated to extreme heat are especially urged to take precautions during the hottest hours of the day during this period and limit outdoor activity. && .DISCUSSION... Strong ridging in the southwestern US is leading to an anomalous high pressure system. The center of the high is now located over the southern California/ southwestern Arizona border. The high pressure center will continue to move eastward centering over southern Arizona in the next 24 to 36 hours. Well above normal temperatures, 20-25 degrees warmer, across southeastern Arizona is expected. Several daytime and monthly records are likely to be broken this weekend. The previous record of 99 degrees set March 26, 1988 is on tap to be broken, as well as the earliest 100 degree day in Tucson (current record April 11, 2025). Due to the truly abnormal heat for this time of year, an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect starting Today, March 19th at 11 AM MST through the evening of Sunday, March 22nd. High temperatures will peak Friday and Saturday with values Tucson westward 100 to 108 degrees and east of Tucson 95 to 100 degrees. Heat will be at dangerous levels for those unaccustomed or not yet acclimated to the heat at this point in the year. There is very little reprieve in the forecast. A weak shortwave trough will push into southern Arizona Monday lowering temperatures a few degrees. By Tuesday, high pressure will build again raising temperatures back into the 90s to low 100s. Afternoon breezy westerly winds will arrive Sunday through early next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z. Mainly SKC through the forecast period with a few high clouds greater than 25k ft AGL. SFC winds NWLY at 6-9 kts after 19/20Z through 20/06Z. Otherwise, SFC winds will be terrain driven and remain under 8 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A strengthening ridge of high pressure will be centered over southern Arizona resulting in progressively hotter and drier conditions heading into the weekend. Significant heat is forecast today through Sunday with high temperatures pushing 20 to 25 degree above normal. Winds through the remainder of the work week will remain below 10 mph with a few afternoon gusts around 20 mph. Breezier conditions return on both Sunday and Monday as the high pressure begins to weaken and flatten out. Minimum RHs 5 to 15 percent. && .CLIMATE... RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT 3 DAYS DATE Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 100 95/1907 102 94/2017 102 92/2017 AJO 103 97/2007 106 98/2017 105 97/1997 KITT PEAK 85 72/2017 87 76/2017 86 76/2004 ORGAN PIPE CACTUS 105 95/2017 108 99/2004 106 99/2004 PICACHO PEAK 99 96/2017 101 95/2004 100 94/2004 SAFFORD AG STATION 96 91/2017 100 92/2017 100 92/2017 SIERRA VISTA FD 92 87/2017 95 86/2017 95 88/2017 TOMBSTONE 92 89/2017 95 86/2017 95 88/2017 WILLCOX 93 86/2017 97 90/2017 97 87/2017 EARLIEST DATES BY THRESHOLD AND RECORDED MARCH MONTHLY RECORD STATION Earliest 95 Earliest 100 March Record TUCSON March 5 (1910) April 11 (2025) 99 (1988) SAFFORD April 8 (1989) April 28 (2000) 93 (2025) NOGALES March 31 (1969) May 6 (2020) 93 (2025) DOUGLAS April 7 (1989) May 12 (1996) 92 (1989) SIERRA VISTA April 19 (1989) May 22 (1989) 91 (1989) WILLCOX April 12 (2025) May 8 (1989) 92 (1907) && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509. && $$ Malarkey Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson