FXUS65 KTWC 050955 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 255 AM MST Tue May 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain will move through southeastern Arizona this morning with additional chances for showers and potentially a thunderstorm this afternoon in eastern Pinal, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Cooler and breezy today as a storm system crosses the region. High temperatures will rise back above normal through the second half of the week. Well above normal temperatures are likely by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Early this morning, an upper low was drifting over central to southern California, combining with a stream of sub- tropical moisture to produce a band of rain through southeastern Arizona. This rain band will push east and gradually dissipate in coverage through the morning, likely becoming more isolated to scattered in nature as it reaches the New Mexico border. By this afternoon the main circulation of the upper low will be nudging into Arizona, with the associated colder temperatures aloft bringing shallow instability from Pinal County eastward through Graham and Greenlee counties. HREF forecast soundings show MUCAPE potential up to 300-500 J/kg, which should allow for additional isolated/scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms to develop in this instability pocket. Coverage should diminish quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Cooler temperatures and breezy to windy conditions will be the other notable weather elements today. Cold air advection and unidirectional flow through the mid- levels will allow for gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon, especially in Santa Cruz county through southern Cochise county where gusts to 40 mph will be possible. Forecast high temperatures are in the 70s across much of the desert locations today, with only a minor warming expected Wednesday. Guidance continues to favor a western ridge building through the coming weekend bringing well above normal temperatures to the forecast. Forecast highs climb to 7-10 degrees above normal this weekend, potentially exceeding 10 degrees above normal to start the next work week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z. BKN-OVC 5k-8k foot ceilings to start the TAF period, becoming FEW-SCT after 05/16Z. A band of light rain will move east of KTUS-KOLS after 05/13Z, then past KDUG after 05/16Z. Isolated to scattered showers and potentially a thunderstorm possible north and east of KTUS through KSAD from 05/17Z to 06/01Z. Surface winds increase and turn southwesterly after 05/15Z, becoming 15-20 kts with gusts to 35 kts at KDUG and 12-16 kts with gusts to 30 kts at other terminal. Winds diminish after 06/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Pacific storm system moving through the region will bring a band of rain through southeastern Arizona this morning with partial clearing skies late this morning. Isolated to scattered showers with potentially a thunderstorm this afternoon mainly from eastern Pinal through Graham and Greenlee counties. Gusty southwesterly winds are expected to increase starting mid- morning becoming 18-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through Santa Cruz and southern Cochise county, and 15-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph elsewhere east of central Pima/Pinal. Cooler temperatures and increased moisture will keep minimum relative humidity above 25 percent today and above 40 percent in the Catalinas, Pinalenos, and White Mountains. A drying and warming trend is expected through the second half of the week with generally light winds Wednesday onwards. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson