FXUS65 KTFX 250954 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 354 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active weekend ahead, especially across Southwestern Montana with gusty winds on Saturday and mountain snow on Sunday. - Cooler and unsettled start to the work week with breezy winds and mountain snow. && .DISCUSSION... A potent upper level trough moving towards the West Coast will bring strong southwesterly flow aloft to the area today, bringing gusty winds and a few showers to the area, particularly along and south of Interstate 90. Observations early this morning showed winds beginning to increase across Southwestern Montana, particularly in some of the North/South oriented valley locations like Ennis, where gusts were already in excess of 35 mph by 3AM. Expect winds to continue through the day today, and while a few gusts of 50-55 mph are expected, the chances for widespread gusts over 58 mph have decreased a bit, so I have cancelled the High Wind Watch that had previously been in effect for portions of the area. With that said, I could still see a few of the windier spots, like Ennis or Norris Hill seeing a gust or two over 58 mph, but these should be exceptions and not the general rule today. As the upper level trough axis swings through the area late today and overnight, expect winds to shift from southerly/southwesterly to more westerly, which will allow winds to increase along the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent plains late Saturday and early Sunday. With some recent model data suggesting that these winds are likely to extend to the Cut Bank area, I have issued a High Wind Watch for Cut Bank and the surrounding area, as the NBM is suggesting a 80-90% chance of winds of 55-60 mph in the area tomorrow. In addition to the winds, a few periods of mountain snow and valley rain are expected with this system, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front and across Southwestern Montana. While some snow may reach the valley floors towards the end of the event Sunday night and Monday morning, snow accumulations at and below pass level will generally be under an inch or two, and therefore should not be overly impactful. The only exception to this may be 191 through Gallatin Canyon, which could see up to 3 or 4 inches in a few spots. For now, I am going to hold off on issuing any Winter Weather advisories, but I could see the possibility of a Winter Weather Advisory for the Madison and Gallatin Mountains. Upper level ridging will briefly build back into the area Monday through midweek, which will bring warmer temperatures and generally tranquil weather across the area. However, our next weather system will look to move into the area Wednesday night and Thursday, which will bring another period of cooler and wetter weather to the area for the second half of the week. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 25/06Z TAF Period Mid to high level cloudiness will continue to fill in over the next few hours ahead of an incoming Pacific weather system. South to southwest surface winds increase through the night, initially along the Rocky Mtn Front and through some southwest MT valleys with gusty winds spreading to most terminals by Saturday afternoon as a cold front associated with the Pacific weather system moves across the Northern Rockies. Localized stronger wind gusts and low level wind shear will become a greater concern later Saturday afternoon and evening as the front moves across the region with some showers and potential for mountain obscuration, especially after 26/00Z. Hoenisch/thor && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 63 39 52 33 / 10 40 10 20 CTB 58 34 47 28 / 10 30 10 10 HLN 63 35 51 30 / 10 80 30 40 BZN 65 33 50 26 / 10 60 40 60 WYS 52 27 38 20 / 20 90 80 80 DLN 59 29 46 25 / 10 70 30 40 HVR 63 37 56 28 / 10 20 10 10 LWT 64 36 51 29 / 0 20 20 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls