FXUS65 KTFX 241142

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

542 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Aviation Section Updated.



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Active weekend ahead, especially across Southwestern Montana 

   with gusty winds on Saturday and mountain snow on Sunday

 - Cooler and unsettled start to the work week with breezy winds 

   and mountain snow



&&



.DISCUSSION...

/Issued 424 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025/ 



 - Meteorological Overview:



Upper level ridging over the area this morning will begin to 

yield to an upper level trough pushing ashore the West Coast of 

the US and Canada later today. In the meantime, expect mostly 

sunny skies this morning to gradually become increasingly cloudy, 

but aside from that today will be one final tranquil and warm 

weather day as highs soar into the mid 60s to low 70s across the 

lower elevations today. 



Southwesterly winds aloft will begin to increase late tonight and

through the day on Saturday as the upper level trough continues 

to approach the area. With deep mixing and a few rain showers 

around, these winds will make their way to the surface, especially

in the afternoon across Southwestern Montana (particularly in the

North/South oriented valleys and mountain passes) and along the 

Rocky Mountain Front. High Wind Watches remain in place across the

Southwestern Valleys for Saturday afternoon, and I have expanded 

these to the higher elevation in light of the threat the winds 

pose to high profile vehicles traversing the passes.



While winds will decrease on Sunday, mountain snowfall will ramp 

up across the higher terrain of Southwestern Montana and along the

Rocky Mountain Front. At this point it appears that any impactful

snowfall will be generally at or above pass level, but I can’t 

rule out the possibility of some of the highest passes seeing some

higher snowfall amounts over 4” between Sunday and Monday 

morning, particularly over Marias Pass (~50%) and Raynolds and 

Targhee Passes (~50% as well). 



After a brief break in the active weather for Tuesday, models 

begin to hint at another disturbance pushing through the area 

around midweek. While uncertainty remains high at this time, 

another round of widespread precipitation and breezy winds look 

probable for midweek. 



 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:



Winds Saturday: Winds on Saturday look to be most impactful 

across Southwestern Montana, particularly in the North/South 

oriented valleys between noon and 6PM when thermal mixing and 

winds aloft are both at their strongest. Forecast atmospheric 

profiles show a deeply mixed surface/boundary layer across 

Southwestern Montana, with winds at the top of the boundary layer 

in excess of 50 kts. This combination, especially should we add a 

few showers into the mix, creates an atmosphere quite primed to 

produce some gusty winds, with some gusts over 60 mph possible (at

least 50%). These winds are likely to also affect a few of the 

mountain passes (Monida, Targhee and Raynolds Passes in 

particular), so I did go ahead and expand the High Wind Watch. 

With that said, confidence in impacts at the higher elevations is 

a bit less than in the valleys (where wind tends to accelerate), 

so some of the Watches are liable to not be upgraded to Warnings. 



Snow Sunday - Monday: The second piece of this dynamic weather 

system will be a few areas of mountain snow/valley rainfall. At 

this time, most of the impacts are expected to be at and above 

pass level, but as mentioned above a few of the passes could see 

some heightened impacts, especially as drivers continue to 

gradually acclimate back to winter driving. Ludwig



&&



.AVIATION... 

24/06Z TAF Period 



While VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24

hours, expect high clouds to gradually thicken across North

Centraland Southwestern Montana today as a weather system

approaches from the west. Winds will be breezy at KCTB today, and

winds will increase at KEKS overnight. Ludwig



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  69  46  64  38 /   0   0   0  40 

CTB  65  41  59  34 /  10   0  10  30 

HLN  65  41  63  35 /   0   0  10  80 

BZN  65  36  65  32 /   0   0   0  70 

WYS  54  26  51  25 /   0   0  10  90 

DLN  62  35  57  29 /   0   0  10  70 

HVR  68  41  65  36 /   0   0   0  20 

LWT  67  45  65  35 /   0   0   0  30 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening 

for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Gallatin Valley-

Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-

Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Ruby Mountains and 

Southern Beaverhead Mountains.



&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls