FXUS65 KTFX 212022 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 222 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front moving through southwest Montana this afternoon shifts gusty west winds to the northwest and brings cooler temperatures. - Areas of rain and snow across eastern portions of central and north- central Montana this afternoon will end early this evening. - Mainly dry and mild conditions are expected early this upcoming week with another windy period followed by cooling to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: A cold front was pushing south across central MT early this afternoon with warm temperatures and gusty west winds still occurring ahead of the front across southwest MT, while much cooler temperatures and areas of rain and snow exist in the cooler airmass behind the front across north-central MT. A shift to northwest winds and cooler temperatures should reach the I-90 corridor by 3pm before continuing through the remainder of SW MT late this afternoon and evening. The area of rain/snow that developed within the cooler airmass across north-central MT will end from west to east by this evening as the upper level wave and frontogenic forcing translate east of the area. Meanwhile, a few scattered showers will accompany and follow the front as is continues through the rest of central and southwest MT through early this evening. The upper level ridge that brought record temperatures to the region over previous days remains in a flattened state through much of the upcoming week. A zonal/westerly flow across the region to the north of the ridge will maintain above average temperatures with the warmest conditions continuing to be found across southwest MT. The next upper level wave from the Pacific and cold front look to move across the region around Wednesday, bringing a risk for more widespread windy conditions and a chance for precipitation followed by cooler temperatures. Hoenisch - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Snow levels and temperatures lowered/cooled much quicker than anticipated across north-central MT today with a change to wet snow also likely to occur across lower elevations of Judith Basin and Fergus county this afternoon shortly after precipitation develops there. Road temperatures are still warm and accumulations will be minimal and limited to grassy areas, but visibility may reduced to 1/2 mile at times in areas of higher snowfall rates. There is 40-60% chance for gusts across southwest MT to exceed 55 mph until the front passes later this afternoon with the best chance occurring briefly in deeper mixing just ahead of the cold front and/or in association with convective showers ahead of the front. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 21/18Z TAF Period. The biggest concern through the TAF period will be for some rain and spotty lower elevation snow along and north of I-90 through the evening, along with a wind shift to a more northerly direction progressing into Southwest Montana through early this evening. Thereafter precipitation and associated low clouds slowly diminish this evening and tonight, with westerly to southwesterly winds slowly building back in over the plains heading into the day Sunday. Mountains will be obscured through the evening in many areas. -AM && .HYDROLOGY... Small rivers and creeks in western Glacier county have responded to overnight precipitation and lower elevation snowmelt, most notably on the Two-medicine river and Badger Creek near Browning. Cooler temperatures are likely to limit additional snow-melt and runoff into these creeks, but we will continuing to monitor. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 31 54 31 59 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 28 49 24 54 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 31 56 30 61 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 28 59 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 25 52 19 56 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 29 59 32 64 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 29 54 27 56 / 30 0 0 0 LWT 28 51 28 57 / 30 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls