FXUS65 KTFX 202347 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 547 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Locally strong winds will continue to affect portions or north- central Montana with overall windy conditions persisting into Saturday. - Well above average temperatures and drier conditions across southwest Montana will maintain elevated fire danger there into Saturday. - Somewhat cooler temperatures and a brief chance for light precipitation follow the passage of a frontal system across the area Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: The Northern Rockies and MT remain beneath a fast mid-level westerly flow on the northern periphery of an anomalous upper level ridge centered over the SW US. Another low-mid level (700mb) wind speed maximum (50-70kt) is nosing across the Rockies this afternoon and will translate east across north-central MT tonight, supporting strong winds across portions of north-central MT into Saturday morning. An upper level wave moving over the ridge will flatten it somewhat with a Pacific cold front slumping across the area on Saturday. Winds shift to the Northwest and decrease following the front, which will begin moving across north-central MT Saturday morning and eventually sag through SW MT Saturday afternoon. Some showers will follow the front on Saturday, with areas near the continental divide and eastern portions of central/north-central MT having the best chance for receiving light precipitation amounts. While some cooling occurs behind the front, temperatures remain above seasonal averages through early next week as the upper ridge to our south re-amplifies, maintaining a fast zonal/westerly flow across the Rockies and mainly dry conditions through Tuesday. Another upper level wave will attempt to flatten the ridge by Wed/Thu of next week, bringing in increased risk of widespread strong winds and potentially a more potent frontal passage, but there is still some uncertainty with more specific details at this time. Hoenisch - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Ongoing High Wind Warning... Atmospheric mixing will continue to help translate strong mid level winds to the surface through the rest of this afternoon. While the most widespread strong winds are expected to peak in intensity late this afternoon into early this evening, there is likely enough support for mountain wave activity to maintain periods of stronger winds through much of the overnight period. Hoenisch && .AVIATION... 21/00Z TAF Period Gusty west to southwesterly winds, mountain wave activity, and instances of low level wind shear will continue this evening with a slow decrease heading into the overnight hours. A Pacific cold front will move from northwest to southeast and bring a gusty northwesterly wind shift, some scattered shower activity, and low VFR clouds on Saturday. It looks to pass through central/north- central MT sometime between 21/09 and 21/16Z and then the southwest roughly between 21/15Z and 21/20Z. - RCG && .FIRE WEATHER... Unseasonable warmth and windy conditions will maintain elevated fire danger across the area with the highest risk across southwest MT valleys where much lower humidity is occurring this afternoon (10-20% vs 20-30% across north-central MT). Some improvement is expected following the Pacific frontal system on Saturday as winds decrease following a shift to the northwest and temperatures cool, but very little precipitation is expected for the drier valleys of SW MT. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 59 31 54 / 10 30 0 0 CTB 41 51 27 49 / 10 20 0 0 HLN 45 6131 55 / 0 20 0 0 BZN 44 68 30 59 / 0 30 30 0 WYS 30 62 25 52 / 0 20 30 0 DLN 44 68 31 60 / 0 10 10 0 HVR 46 57 28 54 / 10 20 20 0 LWT 45 57 28 51 / 0 60 30 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until noon MDT Saturday for Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Cascade County below 5000ft-East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central Pondera- Fergus County below 4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap- Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and MacDonald Pass. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls