FXUS65 KTFX 050516 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1116 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - This afternoon through Tuesday there will be cooler temperatures with isolated rain/snow showers. - Wednesday through Friday it will warm back up. - Thursday through Saturday there will be isolated showers and thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 539 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: This afternoon there is northwest flow aloft over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a cold front that moved through last night/early this morning will bring well- below seasonal average temperatures to the area. This afternoon due to the northwest flow aloft there will be isolated showers over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This afternoon due to a strengthening pressure gradient it will be windy. On Tuesday an upper-level ridge begins to approach Montana and this will bring northerly flow aloft to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon there will be isolated rain/snow showers across the area. Due to northerly flow aloft on Tuesday it will be cold across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon due to an increasing pressure gradient it will be windy across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana with the strongest winds in north-south orientated valleys of Southwestern Montana. On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to warm up with mostly dry weather. Wednesday morning due to clear skies and the cold temperatures on Tuesday it will be chilly with wind chills in the 10s to 20s across North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Thursday there will be northwest flow aloft over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday an upper-level ridge briefly builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring warm and mostly dry weather to the area on Friday. On Saturday and Sunday northwest flow aloft returns to North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring isolated showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures to the area on Saturday. On Sunday it will be warmer and mostly dry. -IG - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: On Tuesday across north-south oriented valleys of Southwestern Montana and the Judith Gap area there is greater than a 50% chance for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. Wednesday morning along the Hi-Line and across the lower-elevations of Fergus and Judith Basin Counties there is greater than a 50% chance for low temperatures of 25 degrees or colder. Wednesday morning there is a 50% chance for wind chills to be 20 degrees or colder along the Hi-Line. On Thursday there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder across the majority of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Friday there is a 15 - 25% chance for thunder in Hill, Blaine, and Fergus Counties. On Saturday there is a 15 - 25% chance for thunder across the majority of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. -IG && .AVIATION... 05/06Z TAF Period Northerly flow aloft with embedded moisture will maintain broken mid level clouds with areas of mountain obscuration through Tuesday afternoon with clearing from north to south Tuesday evening. A few showers are possible through Tuesday afternoon, mainly near the mountains with a 20-30% chance for brief MVFR conditions at some central and SW MT terminals. Northerly surfacewinds persist with a few gusts in excess of 20kts through N-S oriented SW MT valleys and during the Tuesday afternoon period elsewhere. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 33 49 25 69 / 20 30 10 0 CTB 29 49 22 70 / 30 30 0 0 HLN 33 49 26 69 / 20 20 20 0 BZN 31 48 21 64 / 30 30 20 0 WYS 27 44 16 56 / 10 10 10 0 DLN 30 50 22 65 / 20 20 0 10 HVR 26 50 21 66 / 10 20 0 0 LWT 27 44 20 59 / 20 30 10 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls