FXUS65 KTFX 041957

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

157 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - This afternoon through Tuesday there will be cooler

   temperatures with isolated rain/snow showers.



 - Wednesday through Friday it will warm back up.



 - Thursday through Saturday there will be isolated showers and  

   thunderstorms across North-central, Central, and Southwestern 

   Montana.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:



This afternoon there is northwest flow aloft over North-central, 

Central, and Southwestern Montana. This combined with a cold front 

that moved through last night/early this morning will bring well-

below seasonal average temperatures to the area. This afternoon due 

to the northwest flow aloft there will be isolated showers over 

North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This afternoon 

due to a strengthening pressure gradient it will be windy. On 

Tuesday an upper-level ridge begins to approach Montana and this 

will bring northerly flow aloft to North-central, Central, and 

Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon there will be isolated 

rain/snow showers across the area. Due to northerly flow aloft on 

Tuesday it will be cold across North-central, Central, and 

Southwestern Montana. Tuesday afternoon due to an increasing 

pressure gradient it will be windy across North-central, Central,

and Southwestern Montana with the strongest winds in north-south 

orientated valleys of Southwestern Montana.



On Wednesday an upper-level ridge builds in over North-central, 

Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will allow temperatures to 

warm up with mostly dry weather. Wednesday morning due to clear 

skies and the cold temperatures on Tuesday it will be chilly with 

wind chills in the 10s to 20s across North-central, Central, and 

Southwestern Montana. On Thursday there will be northwest flow aloft 

over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will 

bring isolated showers and thunderstorms to North-central, Central, 

and Southwestern Montana. On Friday an upper-level ridge briefly 

builds in over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. 

This will bring warm and mostly dry weather to the area on Friday. 

On Saturday and Sunday northwest flow aloft returns to North-

central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This will bring isolated 

showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures to the area on

Saturday. On Sunday it will be warmer and mostly dry. -IG



 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:



On Tuesday across north-south oriented valleys of Southwestern 

Montana and the Judith Gap area there is greater than a 50% chance

for wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. Wednesday morning along the 

Hi-Line and across the lower-elevations of Fergus and Judith 

Basin Counties there is greater than a 50% chance for low 

temperatures of 25 degrees or colder. Wednesday morning there is a

50% chance for wind chills to be 20 degrees or colder along the 

Hi-Line. On Thursday there is a 15 - 30% chance for thunder 

across the majority of North-central, Central, and Southwestern 

Montana. On Friday there is a 15 - 25% chance for thunder in Hill,

Blaine, and Fergus Counties. On Saturday there is a 15 - 25% 

chance for thunder across the majority of North-central, Central, 

and Southwestern Montana. -IG



&&



.AVIATION... 

04/18Z TAF Period 



Broken mid-level cloud cover and areas of mountain obscuration are

likely to exist through the TAF period.



Scattered rain/virga will continue across the region with 

generally little precipitation expected to reach the ground. Gusty

northerly winds will develop this afternoon with gusts up to 30kts

possible at KCTB, KHVR, KLWT, KGTF, and KEKS. Winds will taper off

during the overnight hours before picking back up towards the

afternoon hours on Tuesday with a slight chance of showers across

north-central, central, and southwest Montana.  -thor



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  34  51  28  69 /  20  40   0   0 

CTB  30  50  26  69 /  10  30   0   0 

HLN  35  52  30  67 /  10  30   0   0 

BZN  30  51  24  63 /  40  30  10   0 

WYS  28  46  19  55 /  20  30  10   0 

DLN  33  52  24  65 /  20  10   0   0 

HVR  27  52  24  65 /  10  10   0   0 

LWT  28  46  24  59 /  20  40  10   0 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls