FXUS65 KSLC 250937 AFDSLC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 337 AM MDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS...A warm, breezy fall day is expected across the Beehive state Saturday. A cold, Pacific system will impact the region through Monday, with the best chance for precipitation across northern Utah. High pressure will build into the area early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A relatively warm, breezy day is in store across the region ahead of the next cold front. Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates upper level ridging continues to shift east across the eastern Great Basin. A trough and associated jet max continue to shift into the Pacific Northwest. Breezy southwest flow will bring a mild fall day to the Beehive State, with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees above normal across much of the state. As the leading edge of the upper level trough continues eastward through the day, the associated mid- level baroclinic zone will approach northwestern Utah this evening and shift into the northern third of the state overnight tonight. Initial precipitation with this front will be relatively light, but around 50% of the ensemble members suggest that as the next jet max approaches the region Sunday morning, broad upper level diffluence will support an expansion of precipitation along the surface cold front, now located across northern Utah. The remainder of the ensemble members do not suggest upper level forcing will coincide with frontal advancement across northern Utah. The 50% of the ensemble members that support the heavier frontal band would suggest the 25th to 75th percentile precipitation for the Cottonwoods would range from 0.20" to 0.50" or so, while the drier, shallower ensemble clusters are closer to 0.15" to 0.30", which is the difference of several inches of snow. The Bear River Range in particular tends to do well in this type of decaying atmospheric river event. The current forecast suggest around 4 to 8 inches, with locally up to 10 inches for the Bear River Range, 1 to 5 inches for the remainder of the remainder of the northern mountains through Monday evening. While this is below advisory criteria, it is important for those with plans in the higher terrain to Sunday into Monday to be fully prepared for winter conditions. High elevation seasonal roads remain open but may become snow covered and difficult at times across the northern mountains. In the wake of this system, a period of upper level ridging is likely, though this looks to be somewhat transient as an active northern stream brings through several largely dry cold fronts Wednesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period at KSLC. Mid-to-high level cloud cover is expected to increase through the day ahead of a cold front passage Sunday. Winds remain generally light out of the southeast this morning before gusty southerly winds develop after roughly 17z. Winds remain southerly into the evening, but are expected to taper around 00z. .REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all regional terminals through the TAF period. Enhanced southerly winds are expected to develop this afternoon ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through the region on Sunday, in addition to increased mid-to-high level cloud coverage throughout the day. Precipitation associated with this incoming front moves into far northern Utah and southwest Wyoming Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, bringing decreased CIGS/VIS to terminals across this area. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...None. WY...None. && $$ Kruse/Whitlam For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/saltlakecity