FXUS65 KSLC 240810

AFDSLC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT

210 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the region will give way to a

period of unsettled weather across mainly northern Utah Sunday

into Monday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...A brief break in the action is in the store for the

Beehive State Friday as high pressure builds into the region.

Early morning upper air and satellite analysis indicates the upper

level low responsible for Thursday's flash flooding is shifting

east across the Utah/Colorado border area. Shortwave ridging is

building into the Great Basin. A large, strong Pacific trough with

an attendant jet max is shifting into the Pacific Northwest. 



Expect high pressure overhead to bring a mild day to the region

today.  Southwest flow will shift into the region Saturday ahead 

of the trough...bringing temperatures from near normal Friday to

around 5 degrees or so above normal Saturday.



As the upper level trough continues to shift eastward into the

West Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, a robust speed max 

will cross into the northern Great Basin...with peak speeds in 

excess of 140kts. The mid-level baroclinic zone will shift into 

northwestern Utah as early as 00Z Sunday. Westerly flow and cold 

air advection will continue through Sunday morning across northern

Utah. 



Guidance has continued to shift toward the majority

solution...with strong forcing remaining north of the Utah/Idaho

border through Sunday morning. Looking at the 00Z ensemble suite,

the 25th to 75th percentile range for the Bear River Range is

around 0.05" to about 0.20". It's more bleak further south. Alta,

for example has a 25th to 75th percentile range from 0 to 0.07" or

so.  



As the next period of increased synoptic scale forcing shifts into

the Great Basin Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, ensemble 

members show more diversity in solutions...with around 15% 

continuing to represent a much stronger, deeper cold front 

shifting across northern and central Utah Sunday night into 

Monday. The remainder of the ensemble members slowly shift the 

depth of this cold front further and further north. Looking at the

Bear River Range once again 25th to 75th percentile is around

0.10" to 0.40", whereas Alta is closer to 0.05" to 0.40"...with

the lower end representing the further north solutions. In

general, looking at a 1 to 6 inch snowfall range for the northern

mountains, with the best probability for that higher range near

the Utah/Idaho border. Given these ranges, do not see any need to

issue any winter headlines on this shift. Note, however, if the

minority solution looks more likely, snow totals may approach

advisory criteria in the northern mountains, particularly north of

I-80. Those with outdoor plans in the mountains should be prepared

for winter conditions even with these snow totals. 



Upper level ridging will build in to the region Tuesday. Another

dry cold front is likely Wednesday into early Thursday across

mainly northern Utah.



&&



.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the 

terminal through the TAF period. Winds remain generally light, 

with southeasterly winds transitioning to the northwest after 

roughly 18z.



.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions persist for 

all regional terminals through the TAF period. Clearing skies this

morning give way to dry conditions across the airspace. Winds 

remain light areawide today, following typical diurnal trends.



&&



.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

UT...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



Kruse/Whitlam



For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...

http://weather.gov/saltlakecity