FXUS65 KREV 070904 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 204 AM PDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * A weak storm will bring breezy winds with choppy lakes today, and light showers mainly this morning for northeast CA. * Temperatures cool back to near average today, then a warming trend resumes with mid-late week highs above 80 degrees for valleys, and 60s to near 70 near the Sierra. * Another weak storm brings increasing breezes Friday and Saturday, with light showers possible mainly for northeast CA. && .DISCUSSION... Spring weather finally returned yesterday after a chilly start to April. We'll see a brief pause in the overall warming trend today as a weak upper trough pushes across the Pacific NW, sending temperatures down about 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday for areas north of I-80 and from the eastern Sierra into far western NV. West Central NV southward to eastern Mono County may not see any notable cooling compared to Sunday. The main effect of this system will be a period of increased winds today through this evening. Ridge tops have already seen some stronger winds, with recent gusts over 80 mph at Slide Mountain. 700 mb flow peaks at 45-50 kt between now and daybreak, then decreases slowly through the remainder of today. For lower elevations, peak wind gusts of 30-40 mph are expected today, producing choppy lake conditions for Tahoe and Pyramid. A few wind prone areas in far western NV along US-395/I-580 and foothill locations may see a short 1-3 hour window with gusts around 50 mph from mid morning-early afternoon, as some of the stronger ridge winds mix down. Precipitation will be limited to northeast CA-far northwest NV and near the Sierra crest west of the Tahoe basin, with the main moisture push across these areas through late morning. Isolated showers could linger through this afternoon before ending this evening, as the storm departs to the northern Rockies. Liquid amounts will be modest--less than 0.10 inch, except a few sites along the crest west of Tahoe and northward to far western Lassen County could see 0.10-0.30 inch. Winter travel impacts over the main Sierra passes are not expected, as snow levels look to remain between 7500-8000 feet with minimal moisture spreading east of the crest to the Tahoe basin. Elsewhere across western NV and southward to Mono County, measurable precip is not anticipated with today's storm. After today, we'll resume the warming trend with dry conditions prevailing for the next few days as high pressure builds into CA-NV. The overall warmest day is projected to occur on Thursday with highs 80-85 degrees for most western NV valleys and mid 60s-near 70 for Sierra communities. Overall winds will be lighter from Tuesday-Thursday, except for some lingering ridge top gusts of 50-60 mph through midday Tuesday. Some afternoon zephyr-type breezes may also return by Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward across the Great Basin. As we get to the weekend, another weak trough is forecast to move into the Pacific Northwest. The latest trends show a decreasing potential for precipitation, with blended guidance only showing 15-30% shower chances for areas near the OR border late Friday night-Saturday. We'll also see some increase in winds Friday- Saturday, possibly near today's peak gust values for lower elevations, but less potential for stronger ridge top gusts compared to today. Temperatures will also cool down for next weekend, with highs dropping to near mid-April averages of mid 60s in lower elevations and 50s for Sierra communities by Sunday. MJD && .AVIATION... * Areas of mountain wave turbulence with periods of LLWS are expected today through midday Tuesday, as FL100 winds peak at 45-50 kt through this morning, then slowly decrease to 30-35 kt Tuesday morning. Peak surface wind gusts of 30-35 kt are expected at most main terminals at times today-this evening from 15Z-03Z, except lesser gusts around 25 kt for KMMH. * Showers and mountain top obscurations will be confined over the higher terrain from NE-CA southward to the Lake Tahoe basin. Brief MVFR CIGS with -SHRA may reach KTRK this morning thru 18Z, while VFR conditions prevail elsewhere. * From Tuesday afternoon through Thursday, VFR conditions are expected to prevail with lighter winds and less turbulence east of the Sierra crest/Carson Range. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ072. && $$