FXUS65 KREV 052002

AFDREV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Reno NV

102 PM PDT Tue May 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



* Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon 

  south and east of Interstate 80. 

  

* Warmer and drier weather prevails Wednesday through at least early 

  next week with breezy afternoon winds on Friday. 



* Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely late this

  weekend into early next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...



Skies will continue to clear in a north-south fashion this afternoon 

as a deformation zone -- draped across Mono-Mineral-Churchill 

counties -- sinks southward, allowing better surface heating to 

overspread moisture pools of 40-50F dewpoints in W Nevada valleys. 

As a result, a swath of greater instability will reside from just 

south of Tahoe to far NE Nevada where MUCAPE reaches 200-800 J/kg by 

the midafternoon. 



The expectation is for shower and thunderstorm development to be 

closer to the deformation zone where lift is maximized. Hi-res 

ensembles corroborate this as lightning probabilities range from 30-

60% in this area. However, deep-layer shear may be too strong for 

instability/lift to overcome, which would inhibit thunderstorm 

formation. Thunderstorm potential closer to I-80 is a bit more 

uncertain as low-level moisture becomes mixed/scoured out over time, 

reducing instability as the afternoon goes on. Still, there is at 

least a 10-30% chance of lightning along and north/west of the I-80 

corridor, with the more likely outcome (20-40% chance) being a few 

passing showers this afternoon. Expect strong outflow winds, heavy 

downpours, and occasional lightning with any thunderstorm.



A warming and drying trend begins after today as high pressure 

builds into western states. Chances of showers will remain below 5% 

through the weekend and into early next week. A weak low pressure 

will quickly pass to our north towards the end of the week, which 

may result in increased W/NW breezes on Friday. More notably, 

temperatures will climb each day this week and weekend, culminating 

in daytime highs around 80F for Sierra communities and 90F in NE 

CA/W NV valleys Sunday and/or Monday. 



-Salas



&&



.AVIATION...



Showers and thunderstorms continue to be the main concern today, 

mainly at KMMH, KHTH, KNFL/FER, and KLOL where chances of lightning 

within 10 miles are greatest (20-40%). The most likely timeframe for 

thunderstorm impacts (sudden/strong wind shifts, heavy 

downpours/MVFR conditions, lightning) will be between 21Z and 03Z. 

Elsewhere, low clouds may result in terrain obscuration. Otherwise, 

VFR conditions and light breezes prevail.  



-Salas



&&



.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

NV...None.

CA...None.

&&



$$