FXUS65 KPUB 242123

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

323 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Scattered convective showers this afternoon and early evening 

  mainly favoring the higher terrain.



- Scattered showers Sunday night into Monday north of a line

  from Salida > COS > Eads.



- Temps through 7 day period around seasonable values, coolest Tue.



- Overall, a very La-Nina-like pattern.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 228 PM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Current radar shows light rain/snow showers across the mountains as 

an upper level shortwave trough travels east. Expect 

isolated/scattered showers to continue through the early evening, 

with light snow at the highest elevations. SPC mesoanalysis has 

SBCAPE up to 500 J/kg across the higher terrain, so can't rule out 

lightning and gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms. Across 

the plains, conditions should stay mostly quiet for the night. The 

only exception would be the southern and southeastern portions of 

the plains, which could see isolated rain showers. 



Overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning, temperatures across the 

eastern plains are expected to cool to their dewpoint level, 

creating foggy conditions for the morning commute. The San Luis 

Valley may see patchy fog Saturday morning as well. However, fog

will quickly dissipate by mid-morning as temperatures rise. 



For the rest of Saturday, mostly dry and warm conditions will 

prevail, as we will be under a shortwave ridge. Temperatures 

will get up to the 60s and low 70s across the plains and 

valleys, with 40s and 50s along the higher terrain. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 236 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Sunday into Monday...strong pacific jet will knife into the region 

from the west-northwest. Fairly stout mid level temp gradient will 

move into the state and this will allow for some wind driven snow to 

occur in the central mtns by later on Sunday and lasting into early 

Monday. A few showers will push east and will possibly affect the 

Pikes Peak region and possibly into the northern section of the 

southeast plains; i.e, Kiowa county. Prior to the jet moving into 

the region, temps on the plains will likely be teh warmest of this 

fcst period, with mid 70s plains and L60s valleys. Monday it will 

cool off as a Canadian high builds southeastward down the High 

Plains. 



Tuesday will be the coolest day of the fcst period and max temps 

will likely only be in teh 50s plains and valleys, with 30s and 40s 

mtns. Drier air will advect in aloft and it will likely remain dry 

across the region although upslope flow will be over the lower 

elevations.



During the midweek time period, Jet will lift to the north of the 

region and temps will begin to slowly warm over the plains. Another 

weak wave will push to our north late in the week, and this may cool 

temps down a bit late in the week (it will remain dry, though). 

\/Hodanish



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1120 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Mid level low over the southern San Luis Valley this morning, 

will dig south and east into north central New Mexico through 

the afternoon and then continue into central New Mexico later 

tonight. This will keep scattered showers and a few embedded 

thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain through 

afternoon, with clearing skies through the evening and 

overnight, as drier air within within northerly flow aloft 

continues to work into the region. 



With that said, VFR conditions are expected at COS and PUB 

through the period, with any precipitation expected to be west 

of the terminals. North to northeast winds at the terminals 

through the afternoon, with winds becoming generally light and 

diurnally driven through the evening and into the day on 

Saturday. VFR and MVFR cigs at ALS through the afternoon, with 

a low PROB30 potential of scattered showers and a few embedded 

thunderstorms over the higher terrain spreading across the

valley floor. Convection wanes and ends through the early 

evening, with clearing skies and VFR conditions expected through

the rest of the taf period. Northerly winds at the terminal

through the afternoon, to become light and variable overnight.



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...WFO Pueblo

LONG TERM...HODANISH

AVIATION...MW