FXUS65 KPUB 211158 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 558 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Once showers dissipate this morning, generally quiet and cool today. - Increasing moisture will kick in starting tonight, with showers and storms expected through the rest of this week across the area. - A bit drier and warmer this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1255 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 A few thunderstorms remain over the eastern plains, but convection is weakening and should continue to do so into the early morning hours. Some small hail and gusty winds will still be possible for a few more hours. High pressure will briefly build into the region today, giving us a lull in activity. Rain showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger over the southeast plains through late morning, with conditions across the area drying out into this afternoon-evening. Temperatures will be largely near or below seasonal normals, with low-mid 70s over most areas. Later tonight, some passing shortwave energy aloft will coincide with upsloping winds along the mountains/plains interface, allowing for some scattered to widespread showers over portions of the plains. That being said, currently not expecting anything strong. Overnight lows will be in the low-mid 50s over the plains, and in the 30s-40s over the high valleys. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 1255 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Tuesday and Wednesday, moist southwest flow will return to the area, bringing more showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. Best chances for heavy rainfall will be over our southern mountains, as well as the New Mexico border, though the entire CWA will have a chance to see at least scattered precipitation. Models are still showing a lot of variability for later this week and into the weekend. General consensus is for upper ridging to continue building in overhead, with south to southwest flow over our area. That being said, some models send some shortwave disturbances through while others show more steady flow. Scattered POPs will remain across the region, with higher chances for heavy rainfall over the mountains again. This unsettled pattern will persist until the weekend, with some drier westerly flow moving in. Temperatures will remain near or just below seasonal levels through the rest of the week, with a slight warming trend expected to set in this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 551 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Dry weather is expected across the TAF sites this forecast period, outside of a few light showers at the start of the period. While VFR conditions are likely at ALS this period, low ceilings this morning and once again later in the period will be the challenge for COS and PUB. At this time, MVFR ceilings are in place at both sites, and anticipate these to remain in place through late morning. Clouds may not ever completely scatter today, however, an upward trend towards VFR ceilings is expected through the day. Guidance has these ceilings returning and even lowering back to MVFR later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Did trend the forecast this way, however, later forecasts will need to refine the forecast. Lighter and diurnally driven winds are likely at all sites. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ