FXUS65 KPUB 192011

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

211 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and thunderstorms to linger into the evening, 

  especially across the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. 



- Hot temperatures and daily mountain showers/storms will

  continue through Friday.



- A more active weather pattern along with cooler temperatures

  forecast for this weekend and into the upcoming work week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Issued at 206 PM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Currently...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across 

the higher terrain and Pikes Peak region this afternoon, with heavy 

rainfall from one slow-moving storm being reported in Monument. 

Temps as of 1 PM have warmed into the 80s for the high valleys, and 

mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.



Tonight...Upper high is located over the Four Corners region, 

providing for very weak storm motion. Hi-res models are showing 

activity lingering late this afternoon and into the evening, with a 

focus along the eastern mts and the Pikes Peak/Palmer Divide region. 

Given the weak flow aloft, periods of heavy rain will need to be 

monitored for potential flash flood threats this evening until 

around 8 PM. Activity will greatly diminish with sunset, but still 

linger until close to midnight with slightly enhanced CAPE and bulk 

shear in place. Plan on overnight low temps tonight around 50F for 

the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the plains.



Wednesday and Wednesday night...The upper high pressure center 

remains the main weather factor for the area, providing for high 

temps tomorrow around 5 degrees above normal for most locations as 

well as another shot of isolated to low-end scattered convection 

through the afternoon and early evening. Activity will once again 

fire over the higher terrain, but with a slight shift to the west 

for the upper high through the day, models are indicating slightly 

less fuel to work with and less shear, with CAPE around 1000 j/kg 

and shear at 25 kts. This will mean a bit less activity when it 

comes to showers and storms, at least that is the expectation. Any 

storms that do develop will likely produce wind gusts up to 45 mph, 

as well as cloud to ground lightning and perhaps some small hail. 

Expect highs in the 80s for the high valleys and mid 80s to mid 90s 

for the plains. Overnight minimum temps will cool into the upper 40s 

to around 50F for the high valleys, and upper 50s to mid 60s for the 

plains. Moore



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



The upper-level high will settle over Colorado through Thursday,

giving us a brief period of mostly dry conditions across the 

area. Though some isolated-scattereed afternoon convection will 

be possible, showers and storms will be fairly weak and confined

to the Continental Divide. Temperatures will remain warm and 

steady, with mid-high 90s over the plains and 80s over the high 

valleys.



As we move into the end of the work week, the high pressure will 

meander just a bit further to the west. Meanwhile, a passing trough 

along the Canadian border will send a cold front down into our area, 

sometime on Friday. The front will bring more widespread 

precipitation to the entire forecast area, while also greatly 

cooling down temperatures. Will have to keep an eye on flash 

flooding concerns over the higher terrain and other flood-prone 

areas, as storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperatures will 

cool down to around seasonal levels, with some guidance keeping 

highs this weekend in the 70s-80s across our CWA.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025



Isolated convection over the higher terrain this afternoon and eve 

could produce intermittent MVFR to IFR conditions over mt passes due 

to lowering clouds and lowered vsby. Otherwise, VFR conditions 

anticipated for much of the forecast area over the next 24 hours, 

including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.



KCOS & KPUB: VFR with typical diurnal surface flow generally 

under 12 kts. PROB30 for -TSRA and variable gusts to 25 kts from

roughly 21z-02z. Decreasing mid level clouds through remainder 

of the night, then mostly clear overnight through tomorrow 

morning.



KALS: VFR conditions expected. Gusty east winds to 22 kts from 21z-

06z for outflow from storms over higher terrain to the east.



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MOORE

LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO

AVIATION...MOORE