FXUS65 KPUB 190926 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 326 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Another round of gusty thunderstorms this afternoon/evening, especially across the eastern mountains and I-25 corridor. - Hot temperatures and daily mountain showers/storms will continue through most of this week. - After a brief lull in activity Wednesday-Thursday, more active weather will return to the area late week and into this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Today and Tonight...Upper-level ridge continues to drift westward through Colorado today, with the center of the upper high near the 4 corners by late this evening. At the surface, easterly outflow winds across the plains/I-25 corridor have shoved moister air westward into the mountains, with dewpoints in the 50s over the higher terrain just west of I-25, while 40s were in place farther west. Usual mix of competing factors will drive thunderstorm chances this afternoon, on the positive side moisture/instability are a little deeper and farther west than Mon, though afternoon mixing will continue to keep CAPE under 1000 J/KG by the time convection forms. On the negative side, less in the way of upper forcing in place given ridge overhead, and deep layer shear will be fairly low with light winds though the column. Overall, expect a slight uptick in storms over the eastern mountains, little change with isolated to scattered storms along I-25, and a downturn in storm chances on the plains as steering currents weaken. Again, lightning and gusty outflow winds the main storm threats, with low shear and warm temps aloft limiting hail production. Suppose a storm or two could produce some brief moderate rainfall, though like the past few days, most convection will produce only sprinkles to a tenth of inch of precipitation. Activity gradually winds down in the evening, though abundance of outflows may drive a few weak showers/storms past sunset, especially along/east of I-25. Max temps may drift up a degf or 2 from Monday's readings as upper ridge is overhead, with temps continuing above seasonal average temps another day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The upper-level high will settle over Colorado Wednesday-Thursday, giving us a brief period of mostly dry conditions across the area. Though some isolated-scattereed afternoon convection will be possible, showers and storms will be fairly weak and confined to the Continental Divide. Temperatures will remain warm and steady, with mid-high 90s over the plains and 80s over the high valleys. As we move into the end of the work week, the high pressure will meander just a bit further to the west. Meanwhile, a passing trough along the Canadian border will send a cold front down into our area, sometime on Friday. The front will bring more widespread precipitation to the entire forecast area, while also greatly cooling down temperatures. Will have to keep an eye on flash flooding concerns over the higher terrain and other flood-prone areas, as storms could produce heavy rainfall. Temperatures will cool down to around seasonal levels, with some guidance keeping highs this weekend in the 70s-80s across our CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 324 AM MDT Tue Aug 19 2025 KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Included a prob30 for tsra at both KCOS/KPUB from 21z/22z til 02z, as most CAMs show convection at/near both sites from late afternoon into the evening. Main impact from storms will again be gusty/erratic outflow winds, before activity pushes east onto the plains and dissipates by late evening. KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Dry conditions are anticipated through tomorrow afternoon, with periods of mid to high level clouds. Low chance for a shower or thunderstorm to impact the TAF site late tomorrow afternoon, however confidence in this is too low at this time to include in the TAF. Winds will generally be Tue morning, then a few CAMs suggest outflows from distant convection over the Sangres may generate gusty e-se winds from mid-afternoon into Tue evening. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...PETERSEN