FXUS65 KPUB 032341

AFDPUB



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pueblo CO

441 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy with a few snow showers across the Pikes Peak region

  this evening, then clearing skies and decreasing winds

  overnight. 



- Cooler, but seasonal, temperatures are expected on Wednesday,

  then warm and mostly dry (except for a few mountain

  flurries/sprinkles Sat/Sun) weather forecast for Thursday 

  through the weekend and on into Mon.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 206 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Upper wave diving south into Colorado this afternoon, with

associated cold front dropping quickly southward through the

plains. Have seen a few showers develop over the Pikes Peak 

region at mid-afternoon, as enough upward motion and instability

are present to force some weak convection, though surface t/td 

spreads remain large (25-35 degf), keeping the bulk of the 

precip as virga/sprinkles/flurries. CAMs suggest window for

any showers is from mid-afternoon until roughly 7-8 pm, before

activity shifts east and weakens as upward motion fades. Lower

levels could moisten just enough for some minor accums early

this evening over higher terrain of nrn El Paso and ern Teller 

counties, though even here accums will be less than an inch. In 

Colorado Springs, a quick dusting might be possible under any 

brief snow showers, before activity ends by late evening. 

Overnight, a few sprinkles/flurries possible on the plains, with

most activity ending after midnight. 



Dry and seasonably cool in the system's wake on Thu, with some

breezy north winds on the plains east of I-25 through the day. 

Big warm-up starts Thu as upper ridge builds over the wrn U.S., 

with mountain valleys well into the 50s, and readings deep into 

the 60s on the plains Thu afternoon.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 216 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Thursday Night Through Saturday..



The second half of the week into the early weekend will be 

characterized by continued dry conditions and warmer than normal

temperatures. Daytime highs look to climb well into the middle 

and upper 60s on the plains Friday, and Saturday afternoon, 

with 50s for mountain valleys. Precipitation is not expected, 

and relative humidity values will be fairly low each afternoon, 

with values dipping down into the teens and twenties. Winds look

to remain on the weak side as the ridge builds and then weakens

overhead through this period. Saturday would bring the highest 

chance for possible fire weather conditions as models break down

the ridge by around then, leading to increased westerly flow 

and warm, downsloping winds, but there is still time for this to

change. 



Sunday Onwards..



Model diverge significantly by the Saturday into Sunday timeframe, 

eventually breaking down the ridge and showing a possible change in 

weather pattern. It seems we may be caught between two systems for 

the Sunday and Monday timeframe, without too many impacts to speak 

of here in southeast Colorado. For now, it seems that we may cool 

back down closer to normal for temperatures Sunday and Monday, but 

we may also see a miss in precipitation chances. Again though, there 

is still plenty of time for this forecast to change.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 432 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Passing showers with gusty north winds and VFR cigs will continue

this evening for KCOS and KPUB with decreasing winds and clouds

towards 12z. Winds will increase from the north again at KCOS on

Wednesday becoming diurnally driven in the afternoon. Winds 

will be lighter on Wednesday for KPUB. 



KALS will see gusty evening winds before 02z with light winds 

and clear skies. -KT



&&



.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...PETERSEN

LONG TERM...EHR

AVIATION...KT