FXUS65 KPSR 250504 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1004 PM MST Fri Oct 24 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through the end of next week with temperatures near to slightly above normal. && .SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/... A closed low was slowly ejecting into the southern high plains through northern New Mexico early this afternoon leaving south- central Arizona under subsident, northerly flow. Modest height rises will overspread the SW Conus over the next 24 hours as shortwave ridging becomes established and H5 readings increase from around 576dm closer to 582dm. Through the weekend, the overall CWA flow pattern will transition to a stagnant, quasi-zonal configuration with pronounced Pacific jet energy punching into the northern Rockies while blocking becomes established over the eastern North America. Models remain in excellent agreement on this evolution yielding excellent forecast confidence of very quiet weather with temperatures hovering within a few degrees of the seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... The weather pattern next week will remain very quiet for the Southwestern U.S. with any weather systems staying well to our north. A nearly stationary trough is expected to remain situated across the northern Pacific while semi-flat ridging is forecast to affect our region. Zonal flow is likely to persist through at least the first half of next week, but heights aloft will also gradually increase with H5 heights reaching 586-588dm by Monday. Fairly stable heights are likely for the rest of the week with clear to mostly clear skies persisting. Due to the stable heights aloft, temperatures will barely budge day to day next week with lower desert highs mostly ranging from 86-92 degrees each day. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will remain light, under 10 kts at all the terminals, and follow familiar diurnal tendencies across South Central AZ. For KIPL and KBLH, winds will shift out of the southeast/south by Saturday afternoon and tend to veer out of the southwest during the evening. FEW-SCT high cirrus decks move into the region by Saturday evening, with greater coverage focused north and west of the airspace. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build across the region into the weekend leading to drier conditions while temperatures stay near seasonal normal readings. Humidities will remain stable over the next few days with MinRHs across the lower deserts staying around 20% to around 25% over higher terrain areas. For at least the first half of next week, weather conditions will not change much with dry conditions prevailing while temperatures warm to 3-5 degrees above normal by the middle part of the week. Light and diurnal winds with limited afternoon upslope gustiness will prevail during the next several days. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Lojero