FXUS65 KPSR 240835

AFDPSR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Phoenix AZ

135 AM MST Fri Oct 24 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through at least the next

  seven days with temperatures near to slightly above normal. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

The weather system that brought showers on Wednesday and cooler

temperatures yesterday finally has exited the region to the 

northeast. Seasonably dry conditions will continue to prevail into

the weekend as a shortwave ridge moves across the region. Heights

aloft will rise today into Saturday, but they will stay within 

climatological normals. Guidance shows H5 heights rising to 

between 580-582dm later today into Saturday before the ridge 

flattens out Saturday night. Skies will remain clear today and the

increasing heights will help to push daytime highs to near 85 

degrees in the Phoenix area to as high as the lower 90s across 

southeast California. Saturday will bring much of the same, but 

with highs warming to between 84-88 degrees across the south- 

central Arizona lower deserts. By Saturday evening, some higher 

level clouds will begin to spread across the region from west to 

east, associated with the remnants of an atmospheric river which 

will impact northern California tonight into Saturday. 



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

The weather pattern next week will remain very quiet for the 

Southwestern U.S. with any weather systems staying well to our 

north. A nearly stationary trough is expected to remain situated 

across the northern Pacific while semi-flat ridging is forecast 

to affect our region. Sunday may start off partly cloudy due to 

some higher level clouds, but mostly sunny skies are forecast by 

the afternoon. The shortwave ridge is also projected to exit to 

the east by Sunday morning leaving westerly quasi-zonal flow in 

place. This zonal flow is likely to persist through at least the 

first half of next week, but heights aloft will also gradually 

increase with H5 heights reaching 586-588dm by Monday. Fairly 

stable heights are likely for the rest of the week with clear to

mostly clear skies persisting. Due to the stable heights aloft, 

temperatures will barely budge day to day next week with lower 

desert highs mostly ranging from 86-92 degrees each day. 



&&



.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z. 



South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and 

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Light winds, generally AOB 8 kts, and clear skies will prevail

through Friday evening. Wind directions will follow typical 

diurnal tendencies across the South Central Arizona terminals and 

will generally vary between W and N at KIPL and KBLH, with periods

of variability to nearly calm conditions anticipated at all 

terminals.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will build across the region into the weekend 

leading to drier conditions while temperatures stay near seasonal 

normal readings. Humidities will remain stable over the next few 

days with MinRHs across the lower deserts staying around 20% to 

around 25% over higher terrain areas. For at least the first half 

of next week, weather conditions will not change much with dry 

conditions prevailing while temperatures warm to 3-5 degrees above

normal by the middle part of the week. Light and diurnal winds 

with limited afternoon upslope gustiness will prevail during the 

next several days.



&&



.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...None.

CA...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Kuhlman

LONG TERM...Kuhlman

AVIATION...Whittock

FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Lojero