FXUS65 KPSR 240504 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1004 PM MST Thu Oct 23 2025 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and tranquil weather will prevail through at least the next seven days with temperatures near to slightly above normal through the weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery depicts the upper- level low situated near the Arizona/Utah border with a very dry air mass in place across much of the region as PWATs have fallen below 0.5" along with clear skies. The lingering presence of the upper- level low will result in some cooler afternoon highs today with readings in the lower 80s across the south-central AZ lower deserts and middle to upper 80s across the western deserts. As the upper- level low gradually shifts further east and weak upper-level ridging gradually builds in from the west on Friday, slightly warmer afternoon highs can be expected with readings in the mid 80s in the Phoenix area and upper 80s to around 90 degrees across the western deserts under clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Guidance is in very good agreement showing a quiet weather pattern for our region over the weekend through much if not all of next week. We are expecting the first shortwave ridge to exit to the east on Sunday giving way to zonal flow for a couple of days. By the middle part of next week, ensembles favor a ridge centered just to our south having more of an influence over the region. This weather pattern will keep overall dry conditions in place with PWATs hovering near climatological normals. Aside from a period of higher level clouds Saturday night and much of Sunday, skies will tend to be clear through the period. From Saturday through around Tuesday, NBM forecast temperatures show readings running 2-5 degrees above normal with lower desert highs on average in the upper 80s. Once we have more influence from the ridge by around next Wednesday, high temperatures are more likely to be around 90 degrees. We may even end up with a couple of days with highs in the lower 90s for a good portion of the lower deserts depending on how strong the ridge is over our region. The forecast for late next week into next weekend looks to be very similar with dry conditions prevailing and temperatures running slightly above normal. && .AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z. South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Light winds, generally AOB 8 kts, and clear skies will prevail through Friday evening. Wind directions will follow typical diurnal tendencies across the South Central Arizona terminals and will generally vary between W and N at KIPL and KBLH, with periods of variability to nearly calm conditions anticipated at all terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will build across the region by Friday leading to drier conditions while temperatures stay near seasonal normal readings. Humidities will remain stable over the next few days with MinRHs across the lower deserts staying around 20% to around 25% over higher terrain areas. For at least the first half of next week, weather conditions will not change much with dry conditions prevailing while temperatures warm to 3-5 degrees above normal by the middle part of the week. Light and diurnal winds with limited afternoon upslope gustiness will prevail during the next several days. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lojero LONG TERM...Kuhlman AVIATION...Whittock FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Lojero